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Triple whammy casts doubts over B&B's rescue package



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Published Date: 15 July 2008
BRADFORD & BINGLEY'S beleaguered chairman Rod Kent will be hoping it's third time lucky when he stands up in front of shareholders on Thursday to ask them to back his controversial £400m cash call.
Kent has already adjourned two previous meetings after former plans were scrapped in what has become one of the most torturous and complicated rights issues in history.

Shareholders are expected to give Kent and his management team a rough ride at
the EGM, but ultimately they will approve the deal as the alternative is another potential Northern Rock crisis.

Influential investor group the UK Shareholders' Association is recommending that small shareholders vote for this latest rescue package.

About 40 per cent of the shares are owned by small investors, a legacy of the bank's former status as a building society. Nearly a million of the bank's customers, many of them based in Yorkshire, were given 250 shares each when the Bradford & Bingley demutualised in 2000.

While the UK Shareholders' Association says the new deal is better than the former rescue plan, it has raised serious questions about the bank's future.

"The problems are temporarily resolved," said Roger Lawson of the UK Shareholders' Association. "But there are serious questions about the group's long-term future. It has a high exposure to buy-to-let mortgages which will get it into problems. It is vulnerable to a takeover bid."

He added that the group's future would depend on how bad the housing market becomes. "If negative equity becomes commonplace we may well see a higher default rate," said Mr Lawson. "Bradford & Bingley is in a similar position to Northern Rock, its strategy has come a cropper."

His sentiments were backed by City analysts who say the bank is suffering from a triple whammy of rising bad debts, huge write-downs on investments and soaring wholesale borrowing costs.

But many of its problems have been of its own making, starting off with an over-ambitious plan to focus on the buy-to-let market that ignored signals the sector would get into difficulty.

The outcome of this sorry tale is that shareholders have seen their shares plunge from highs of 530p two years ago to last night's closing price of 53p.

Independent share dealing service provider The Share Centre is advising small investors to sell the B&B shares as the market could get worse.

B&B's Kent is expected to resign once the latest £400m rights issue goes through and as soon as this happens the City regulator the Financial Services Authority is keen to appoint a new heavyweight chief executive as quickly as possible. The two favourites are ex-HBOS chief executive Sir James Crosby and former Barclays finance director Naguib Kheraj, but both have made it plain they don't want the job. Poisoned and chalice are two words that spring to mind.

David Buik at Cantor Index said: "This third attempt at a rights issue looks like a dog's breakfast. We can only hope that the management of this beleaguered mortgage lender and its advisers have plan B in place. Hopefully it will take the shape of a white knight in shining armour who will sweep up this damsel in distress."

But finding a suitor could be tough as the economy deteriorates. Bankers said a buyer is unlikely to come forward unless B&B's situation worsens further and it is practically given away.

The FSA is determined to avoid another crisis like Northern Rock, which sparked the first run on a British bank in 150 years. This led to the nationalisation of Northern Rock, the taxpayer having to cough up £24bn to secure the bank's future.

Analyst Eric Burns at Leeds-based WH Ireland believes B&B will not disintegrate into another Northern Rock, but says the bank's days are numbered as an independent entity. "In the long term there has to be a takeover," said Mr Burns. "The FSA, Bank of England and the Government can't afford to go down the Northern Rock route. One bank collapse looks careless, two looks like it's out of control".

The FSA is very keen to find a buyer once B&B's rights issue is out of the way, but this may be easier said than done. Although B&B is valued at less than £300m, which makes it look like a bargain, a buyer would have to take on £40bn of high-risk mortgage assets.

Mr Burns said a big bank would find it very hard to justify buying B&B to its shareholders. "The difficulty is that shareholders will see it as their bank getting involved in something it should steer clear of," he said.

The other issue is the inevitable bad press that would come from a takeover in terms of job losses. Any bank that buys B&B would have to axe thousands of jobs if they are to make the takeover stack up financially. Right now that is the last thing a bank needs at a time when the financial sector is being viewed with suspicion.

The other problem is that a takeover of B&B doesn't make sense for any of the UK players. HSBC is focused on expanding markets, Royal Bank of Scotland has enough problems with its own £12bn rights issue and a lack of buyers for its insurance arm, HBOS is facing similar problems with its £4bn rights issue, Barclays doesn't have the cash and Lloyds is keen to steer clear of risky mortgages.

There were hopes that Spanish bank Santander might step in, but these were scuppered yesterday with the news it is to buy Alliance & Leicester for £1.3bn.

Given the lack of buyers, one possibility is to break up B&B and sell various chunks to different buyers. "I'd like to think it won't be broken up piecemeal, but it's a possibility," said Mr Burns.

It would be an ignominious end for a bank that can trace its Yorkshire roots back to 1851 when the Bingley Building Society was formed. But better the bank be broken up than another Northern Rock disaster.



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  • Last Updated: 15 July 2008 9:04 AM
  • Source: n/a
  • Location: Yorkshire
 
 

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