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Blackfriar: The Aldi effect is heralding in a new era of austerity



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Published Date: 30 October 2008
THEY'RE calling it the Aldi effect.
With cost of living sky high, the public transport operators are rubbing their hands in glee.

Passengers have been switching to public transport in their droves, mirroring the flight to value seen by the big supermarkets, as customers look for bar
gains in the aisles of discount food stores such as Netto, Lidl and Aldi.

Stagecoach, which runs buses in Hull, Sheffield, Rotherham, Barnsley and Doncaster, yesterday said UK bus revenues were up 9.2 per cent on a year ago.

Passenger numbers were up to match, and in its rail division, revenues soared 8.3 per cent.

"It's what I would call the Aldi effect on public transport," said Stagecoach corporate communications director Steve Stewart.

"In terms of transport we are seeing people switch to low-cost rail and bus services."

Arriva, which also runs buses and trains in the region, this week said total revenue was up 57 per cent, with the bus division up 6.3 per cent.

National Express Group, which runs the East Coast line, recently said half-year pre-tax profits climbed 13.9 per cent to £90m. At the time Richard Bowker, group chief executive, said: "The public transport industry is seeing clear evidence that due to the rapid rise in petrol prices people are changing the way they travel in Britain."

"There are fewer cars on the road these days," pointed out one Yorkshire motor industry executive recently. "People are put off by the price of driving."

High fuel prices now look to be a thing of the past. With the average litre of unleaded fuel now back down to 98.2p, and brent crude oil hovering around the $66 per barrel mark, you could be forgiven for thinking that the switch to public transport may be short-lived.

Fear is stalking the oil price, as traders predict the global downturn strangling demand for fuel. Could the lower price mean a return to the car, as motorists ditch overcrowded buses and trains and get back behind the wheel?

That's unlikely in the new age of austerity bearing down on the UK. Public transport firms will be one of the few businesses with a relative safety net.

People still have to get to work, attend that conference and visit their sick relative on the other side of the Pennines.

In the past, a trip in the car might have been the answer, but now people are thinking harder about the options, and are more likely to opt for the off-peak return. And when the recession really bites, as it surely will, this will become a consideration for increasing numbers.

"At first this migration looks to have been caused by rising fuel prices," said Keith Bowman, Hargreaves Lansdown equity analyst, speaking about Stagecoach's update. "Although now, despite the fall in the oil price, the trend may prove to be supported via consumers' desire to cut costs."

"Fuel might have come down but energy costs have rocketed and people are facing higher insurance premiums and food prices," said Stagecoach's Stewart. "Even accounting for reduced prices at the pumps people's wallets are still going to be stretched."

And if oil prices continue to fall, one of the transport sector's biggest cost burdens will get a whole lot lighter.

But the transport sector still faces a tough time along with the rest of the economy. Passenger numbers may drop as discretionary spend is squeezed, and investment in fleet and rolling stock may have to go on the back burner.

But one thing is certain – the taste for value isn't going to disappear.



The full article contains 613 words and appears in n/a newspaper.
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  • Last Updated: 30 October 2008 7:30 AM
  • Source: n/a
  • Location: Yorkshire
 
 

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