Just imagine an investment which offered 105 per cent growth over three years. It sounds too good to be true.
Yet that is the average increase shown by investing in the global emerging markets sector of a unit trust or open-ended investment compa
ny since April 2005.
Unless dependent upon a regular income stream, almost every portfolio ought to have exposure to the global economy and that means some immature countries.
If examined properly – probably by an independent financial adviser – far too much of our personal savings is tied up in Britain.
This would not be to the US where the recession looks to be the worst since 1991 when GDP fell by 0.2 per cent or either the Eurozone or Japan where the IMF forecasts growth of only 1.2 and 1.5 per cent, respectively, in 2009.
Instead, look at emerging countries, notably India – expected to grow at 7.9 to eight per cent over the next two years – China at 9.3 to 9.5 per cent growth and South America. The MSCI Emerging Markets index rose 37.4 per cent last year, outperforming the MSCI World Index by 30 per cent.
Many such countries used to follow the G7 in their ups and downs but their own industrial revolutions are creating an economic strength that within a few decades may rival Western Europe, Japan and North America. The downside is that accounting systems may not be robust and their share classes may be subject to political interference.
Emerging markets can be volatile and so consider:
n Investing regularly (monthly or quarterly), rather than in lump sums.
n Viewing such savings as long term (at least five and more probably 8-10 years).
n Growth rather than dividend income will be the major return.
n Single country or a spread of countries.
Already emerging markets account for 11 per cent of the world stock market index and, for anyone seeking growth for their money, at least this level – and probably up to 20 per cent – should be allocated to the sector.
For the really adventurous, opt for direct investment in specific companies but local knowledge is paramount and dealing costs may wipe out profits. Instead, go for well-managed funds where benefits see a collective investment and a professional stock-picking manager. If within an ISA wrapper, the twin advantages of exemption from income tax and capital gains tax apply.
Up to £7,200 per adult can be sheltered this tax year, all of which can be in the stock market or split up to £3,600 in a cash ISA and the balance in stocks and shares.
While past performance is only a guide, it reveals stars in global emerging funds over the last three years, according to Lipper research: JM Morgan New Europe (up 175 per cent), Baillie Gifford Emerging Markets Growth (up 131 per cent) and AXA Framlington Emerging Markets (up 126 per cent). Worst under-performers over the same period – or 'dog funds' as brokers Bestinvest call them – were Henderson Emerging Markets A, Lincoln Emerging Markets, Lloyd George Emerging Markets and Scottish Widows Emerging Markets.
There are only a few investment trusts in this sector. In addition to having independent boards of directors and usually lower management costs than unit trusts and OEICs, they can outperform other collectives by being able to 'gear' (borrow to take advantage of a situation).
If £100 had been invested for five years, total return would be £466.10 (JP Morgan Emerging Markets), £438.50 (Advance Developing Markets) and £430.60 (Templeton Emerging Markets), according to the Association of Investment Companies.
China has rightly attracted world attention. Last month it revised its growth forecast up from 11.4 to 11.9 per cent. Expenditure on domestic infrastructure and a growing middle class are positive signs.
Gartmore China Opportunities is among the top performing Asia Pacific funds. It has been running 25 years and has grown to £667m. Over three years, money invested has jumped over 124 per cent. The initial five per cent charge is removed if purchased through Financial Discounts Direct.
Another leading discount broker, Chelsea Financial tips First State Greater China Growth. The 40-60 stocks have a small and mid-cap bias. It has grown 113 per cent in three years. India is my major tip. The world's largest democracy, India is less dependent than China for trading cheap goods, has a growing middle class and a good education system in place.
Over five years Fidelity India Focus has jumped 122.6 per cent and JP Morgan Indian Investment Trust grown almost 146 per cent. Consider also Aberdeen Global India Opportunities, First State Indian Subcontinent and Neptune India. Russia is likely to achieve a 6.4 per cent current account surplus in GDP (by comparison with deficits of 4.5 per cent in the US and 3.3 per cent in the UK). Yet it is suffering from high inflation, which is expected to be 11 per cent – over four per cent above its central bank target.
Neptune Russia & Greater Russia is the star fund in this field. It has jumped 224 per cent in value in three years.
Former Communist Europe also shows potential. The Baltic states – notably Estonia – but also Hungary and Poland are developing strong trading links with the West. Poland has already attracted Tesco and France's Carrefour.
One way to achieve diversity in expanding markets is to opt for a BRIC fund. This is one which invests in Brazil, Russia, India and China. Earlier this year Goldman Sachs recommended buying the Brazilian real and Russian rouble and selling sterling and both the Canadian and US dollar.
The stockbroker offers an investment which offers 130 per cent of the rise in BRIC currencies together with your capital back provided it is held for a three-year term. That is offered through advisers like Seven Investment Management.
Alliancz RCM BRIC Stars invests in each of the four countries and up to one third elsewhere. It holds up to 80 stocks. It has grown 31.6 per cent in the last 12 months.
Contacts: Chelsea Financial 0800 071 3333, Financial Discounts Direct 01420 549090, Seven Investment Management 020 7337 0527.
CASE STUDYElizabeth Kershaw has been both a greengrocer and assistant manager for the over 50s centre in Ilkley.
Today the 64-year-old finds time to walk, garden, eat out with friends and keep fit at the gym.
She takes financial advice from Skipton Building Society where she has had a savings account for some time. Their specialist arm, Skipton Financial Services, is not tied to a provider and staff are free to recommend the most appropriate money route. They are remunerated out of commission and make no charge. Lorna Robertson at the Yeadon branch has been Mrs Kershaw's adviser since September 2006.
At least once a year they meet to discuss her portfolio.
She likes to diversify as "it makes sense to spread risk after Northern Rock", says Mrs Kershaw.
Last October, Lorna recommended the Henderson Independent Distribution Portfolio Fund for her equity ISA. It invests in the 'cautious managed' sector which reflected Mrs Kershaw's attitude to risk.
Over three years it has jumped 21.8 per cent in value (against 14.6 per cent for the sector).
Emerging markets have a distinct part in the fund including Neptune European Opportunities, Henderson Horizon Asian Dividend Income and Pictet Asian Local Currency Debt.
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