Optimistic, but with a touch of nervousness. You might expect that to be the case at the Great Yorkshire Show in Harrogate which will celebrate its 150th anniversary shortly and also receive a visit from
the Queen.

The show has come through a difficult decade for various reasons, reflecting the state of agriculture in general. This year, the picture has changed for the better.

East Riding farmer Paul Temple, vice-president of the National Farmers' Union, which itself celebrates its 100th anniversary, believes that the upturn in farmers' fortunes is down to two main factors – the world market and public perception.

"Virtually every sector of farming has some feeling of optimism at the moment," he says. "What is really important though is that food supply and the security of food – knowing where it comes from – is now much more in everyone's minds.

"That has led to farmers once again feeling that they have a future, which is quite different from a few years ago when many were questioning why they were farming at all."

The proof of their worth has been indicated in rising prices. That may not sound good news to consumers, but reassures farmers that quality UK-grown produce can be profitable once again.

"Just look at sheep prices. Last year they were in the depths of depression. Nobody could have foreseen what would happen both to them and beef prices. What this means is that food and food production is now most definitely on the agenda, which it wasn't at this
time last year.

"The world market has suffered recently through falling stock levels. The reasons why they have suffered has largely been down to changing global weather patterns. Wheat is a classic indication of the world market and everyone is largely comfortable if the ratio of stock carried over to a following year is 18 per cent. When it reaches a level of 14 per cent – which it had fallen to – then there is a nervousness. That's when we see a rush of buying further forward."

This is the point when speculators come into a market and that amplifies the overall effect. "Just look at the dairy sector. That has seen rising demand in a similar way. As supply has reduced, prices have risen."

Paul feels that climate change has an increasing role in this. "My mantra is that farming is at the front end of climate change. A lot of us don't understand it, but we certainly do see first-hand that weather patterns have become more volatile and that carbon dioxide levels are rising. We have all experienced vastly disturbed summers with peculiar periods of wet weather which we haven't been used to regularly in years gone by."

Public perception has also changed because farmers have received a better press in recent times. "One of the big changes – and a positive one for all farmers – is that the mainstream press has been behind where food is coming from and how it is produced. That's good news and farmers are being made to feel as though what they are doing is wanted. For a long period, there has been a feeling the other way.

"The flip-side of the feel-good time in farming is that farmers are now nervous over the rising cost of production in sectors such
as fuel, chemicals, fertiliser and feed.

"Many farmers also sold forward last year thinking that £90-£100/tonne was a good price, so they missed out on the bigger numbers that came between September and December. Farmers, on the whole, don't mind paying more, providing that prices stay as they are.

"But their nervousness comes from committing increased time, effort and monies in increasing livestock numbers and cropping acreage and
yet seeing prices fall as costs rise."

When prices go up one year, you can guarantee that the next year everyone attempts to grow more. This can be a major headache for farmers, as a massive surge in production can bring down the price overall.

Paul believes that while this has been a problem in the past, the current trends in world demand may be another cause for optimism. "This year will be a challenging time for wheat. There are many farmers who will be very nervous at the moment, particularly as this year is set to be a big harvest with an additional 20m tonnes of cereals being grown in Europe. There are indications that things are looking reasonable, although until harvest none of us will know the real impact.

"The market was just starting to drop away recently. Then the rains came to Illinois last week and prices went back up again. It is said that as farmers we always farm our way back to low prices. But with a global population consumption raising the bar to an increased demand level, that may not be the case at the moment."

There is a danger that, in times of rising prices, farmers forget the good work that has been done on what are known as "alternative crops" grown for industry and fuel.

"New crops have a place. They provide energy products, such as hemp, for building materials. With a barrel of oil predicted to
rise to as much as $240 next year, where does that leave bio energy and straw burning sites? They are going to become more important, so we need to make sure the crops for these are not abandoned. But it is difficult when prices rise elsewhere."

Supermarkets and farmers have had a sometimes difficult relationship. Paul also feels that further optimism has come from a realisation of the importance of UK production here too. "Consistency in price has helped. The likes of Asda and Morrisons now have their own dedicated milk supply chains and overall the business relationship between farmers and supermarkets is a lot better than it was.

"There are always going to be some issues, but there has been a change. I wouldn't say it's necessarily been a willingness, but there
has been a change of approach to buying locally.

"It's now great to be able to talk sensibly about production on farms and we have embraced all environmental measures too.

"We've been proving ourselves for years, before any directives came about, and it is nice to see that at last we are getting some reward.

"We're positive about our future now, but with a touch of nervousness."