The price of fertilisers could force a major return to organic farming whether people think it is a good idea or not, according to the Soil Association.
Prices of artificial fertilisers have become a barometer of what is happening to industrial food production.
The price of nitrogen-based fertilisers, in particular, is directly related to the price of natural gas, which is burned in large quantiti
es in the process which extracts nitrogen from the atmosphere.
The other main "soil vitamins", phosphate and potash, are mined, so their price is related to supply as well as machinery and transportation costs.
Nitrogen is plentiful but the price of nitrates for the farm has doubled over the past year to about £330 a tonne, with oil at about $130 a barrel. The oil producers' organisation, OPEC, warned that a barrel could rise to $200 by the end of the year. It has been forecast that nitrogen-based fertilisers could then hit £500 a tonne.
The Soil Association says: "At these prices, the claimed efficiency of industrial farming begins to collapse." Campaigns director Robin Maynard said: "The manufacture of nitrogen fertiliser is the main use of energy in agriculture. Globally, agriculture is the single largest source of the greenhouse gas nitrous oxide – which is over 310 times more damaging than carbon dioxide. Each tonne of fertiliser made gives off 6.7 tonnes of CO2-equivalent greenhouse gases.
"There is an obvious need to cut our consumption in the interest of greenhouse gas targets. But before we get there, we could see a significant retreat driven by price. We are not yet sure exactly what the tipping point will be but we might find out soon."
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