When it comes to the crunch, are we really heading back to the 1970s?
Published Date:
30 June 2008
It was the decade which brought us Black Forest gateau, Abba and platform shoes.
However, along with changing fashions came the three-day week, power cuts, soaring inflation and unemployment. As we are so often told history is cyclical and while flares and the dreaded maxi-dress have already made unwelcome reappearances, fears are growing that all that was wrong with the 1970s could also return to bite.
And it's not just the pessimists who are peddling stories of yet more economic doom and gloom.
At the start of the year, as the global credit crunch began to make its presence felt, Government ministers talked confidently, if quietly, of a country ready and able to weather the coming storm. In the last six months, as oil has lived up to its reputation of black gold and the general cost of living has hit people in the pocket, the mood has changed and the dreaded word stagflation has returned to the political vocabulary. Even Alistair Darling hasn't been able to avoid it.
Attending a meeting of senior businessmen in Leeds last week, the Chancellor warned that no one can afford to make the same mistakes again.
"We are going through a period of uncertainty and times are tough," he admitted. "If we get ourselves into the situation we've got ourselves in the past where in the '70s, '80s and early '90s every penny you get by way of a wage increase is eaten up by prices faster than that you will lose out.
"If we allow home-grown inflation to be entrenched as we did, people will remember prices rising in one year in the 1970s by 27 per cent – if we allow that to happen again then everyone will lose out, especially those on the lowest incomes because inflation hits them the hardest."
Sadly for Mr Darling, there are those who believe the horse bolted long before the stable door was closed and whatever measures are now put in place history will repeat itself.
"I feel a bit sorry for Alistair Darling, who has become a fall guy for an accident which was waiting to happen," says Michael Symmonds of financial trouble shooters Chelsea Partners Private Office, which has offices in Leeds and London. "The world has always worked on a cycle of feast and famine and our current famine was long overdue.
"It's never helpful to be alarmist, but the situation is grim and likely to get grimmer. If you look at our basic needs, which are food, power and shelter, every one of them has been hit and people are starting to hurt.
"Yes, the Government could have put more aside during the good years, instead of continuing to borrow to the hilt, but that's not human nature. Life often seems too short for scrimping and saving, but we are now paying the price for our profligacy."
In the 1970s, industrial action by coal miners forced the introduction of the power-saving three-day week and as inflation soared into double figures, ordinary families found they could no longer afford even the most modest of lifestyles.
Today, while the industrial backdrop has changed, rising mortgage payments, food and petrol prices once again mean that many have outgoings which far exceed their monthly salary.
However, while the similarities between now and four decades ago are there for those who want to find them, good news has sprung from some surprising quarters. Last month saw a record level of retail spending, with a rise of 3.5 per cent shocking many analysts who had feared the worst.
"There have certainly been some mixed messages," says Yorkshire Forward's Patrick Bowes. "No one expected retail sales to increase, but there isn't enough consistent data to make any predictions what will happen in the coming months.
"What we do know is that this year has been a tale of two sectors. Manufacturing, buoyed by sterling's relationship with the dollar, has done well while many in the services industry have seen a slowdown in orders books.
"We are currently doing some research and it seems to suggest that while confidence has been knocked, most remain optimistic that things will improve and at the moment at least we are not seeing any major signs that the problems in the economy are impacting on the jobs market."
While analysts will continue to plot the country's economic graph, statistics never tell the full story. For every nugget of good news, the public remain worried that worse is to come.
"I never trust statistics, but I do trust what our members tell us and people aren't spending what they once were," says Joe Harrison, chief executive of the Barnsley-based Market Traders' Association. "The couple of sirloin steaks bought on a Saturday have been swapped for a pound of mince and shoppers are being very cautious.
"Market traders are at the sharp end of retail. This isn't the first time we have faced tough trading times and it won't be the last."
For many, the end of the good times has been a wake-up call and just like in the 1970s a battle for survival has begun and only the fittest will survive.
"Our underlying sales and margins are holding up well and we are well ahead of last year," says David Hattersley, managing director of de Bretton Group, the York-based hospitality group. "Like all businesses though, it's our underlying costs that are hurting us.
"At times like these you can't sit back and hope for the best. You have to look very closely at your business structure. We have taken out £500,000 of annual costs in the group by centralising purchasing and re-thinking the way we operate all of our brands.
"Are we in a recession? I don't know. The media has an insatiable appetite for bad news. People's willingness to take on personal debt is actually an endorsement of their own country's stability. The vast majority of people who have taken out loans are sensible, responsible people who, if they carry on as normal, might feel a bit of pain as rates increase and nothing more. There are agencies out there telling everyone to batten down the hatches and spend nothing. This is the kind of idiotic advice that will certainly send us into recession."
With belts being tightened across the country, what has frustrated many is the perceived lack of action by the Government. No one doubts circumstances beyond their control have contributed to the current problems, but no solution yet appears to be forthcoming.
"I don't think anyone really thought the price of petrol would get so high, so quickly. It seemed to happen overnight," says Keith Tordoff, who together with his wife Gloria, runs a sweetshop in Pateley Bridge.
"We're doing okay at the moment, although we have been hit by rising sugar prices and I am hopeful that we will have a good summer, but
certainly we've seen a drop in the number of visitors coming to the town during the week.
"When you're constantly reading about the credit crunch, it's natural for people to tighten their belts and get a little bit nervous for
the future.
"There's got to be an election in 2010 and if the Government stands any chance of winning surely it has to make a gesture to voters who have been hit in the pocket. I honestly think that if someone at the top could be decisive then we would all be in a better position economically, but with a dour Prime Minister and a grey Chancellor maybe that's being just a little too optimistic."
A Prime Minister who has lost the confidence of the public? Now that does sound like the 1970s.
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Last Updated:
30 June 2008 9:58 AM
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Source:
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Location:
Yorkshire