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Audacious onslaught may mark new tactic in terror
The Mumbai attacks, whichever particular group is behind them, were audacious and could mark the opening of a new dimension in the struggle against terrorism. The fear now is that the tactic may be adopted elsewhere.
The early indications suggest that some of the attackers may be linked to a jihadist group operating in Pakistan, on the border with Afghanistan. It's been a safe haven for the extremists for many years: A virtually lawless area where the central government struggles to exert influence.
This is where al-Qaida and its affiliated groups have re-built a network of jihad training camps, following the US-led invasion of Afghanistan after 9/11. Last year, a leaked US government intelligence estimate concluded that al-Qaida's operating capabilities were at their strongest level since 9/11, despite seven years of military action aimed at eliminating it.
Ridding Muslim lands of Western troops is al-Qaida's main reason for being, and it has been a very powerful recruiting tool.
The choice of hotels frequented by foreigners is no surprise, as al-Qaida and other militant Islamic groups have a long history of targeting them.
The last example was the truck bombing of the Marriott hotel in Islamabad in September, killing 40 people.
A sea-borne invasion of a major city, however, is a startling new development.
If the attacks are linked to al-Qaida or an affiliated group, then it may be a landmark moment. It would suggest that the network's post-9/11 campaign to recruit and train up a so-called "third generation" of operatives has borne fruit.
It has been noticeable in recent months that training manuals posted to militant websites have included much information on automatic weapons and guides to mounting ambushes.
The large, purpose-built forts of pre-9/11 Afghanistan have been replaced by a large network of smaller, makeshift camps in remote areas in Pakistan.
A rash of recent threats to European countries issued by Pakistan terrorists is an indication of the multinational nature of the new training structure. Militants in the area have issued threats to mount attacks in France, Germany and Belgium in recent days, for example.
The most notorious is a camp at Malakand, in the North West Frontier Province, which has been attended by several convicted British terrorists and was visited by two of the 7/7 bombers. By all accounts, and the number of people based in the UK who are suspected of involvement in terrorism gives some indication of the output.
The then head of the Security Service, Dame Eliza Manningham-Buller, said in 2006 that 1,600 suspected Islamic terrorists were under surveillance. Last year, her successor Jonathan Evans said the number had grown to 2,000, with perhaps another 2,000 yet to be discovered. A government intelligence document leaked earlier uses the term "some thousands".
The worry is that the tactics used in Mumbai may be used elsewhere. On Friday, al-Qaida's deputy leader claimed credit for sparking the global financial crisis with the 9/11 attacks. Its leadership will certainly be studying ways in which it might exacerbate the chaos.
The worst case scenario is that Mumbai was an experiment that heralds the mass deployment of third generation jihadists and the start of a new phase in hostilities; one that will involve urban combat in cities far away from the main battlefields.
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Saturday 26 May 2012
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