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MPs warned of 100,000 swine flu cases a day
THE UK could be seeing up to 100,000 new swine flu cases each day by the end of August the Health Secretary warned today as the UK total of confirmed cases hit 7,447.
Moving the country onto a new "treatment phase", Andy Burnham stressed the 100,000 a day figure was only a projection but said scientists expected to see "rapid rises" in the number hit by the virus.
"Cases are doubling every week and on this trend we could see over 100,000 cases per day by the end of August," he told MPs.
Updating MPs on the progress of swine flu, Mr Burnham said a significant number of people had been hospitalised.
Antivirals will now be offered to all those who have contracted the illness with higher risk patients given priority.
The Government has signed contracts for enough vaccine to cover the whole population, he told the House of Commons. The first will become available next month with 60 million doses available by the end of the year.
Mr Burnham said last week saw a "considerable rise" in the number of cases with "hot spots" emerging in areas like London, the West Midlands and Scotland.
There were now on average several hundred new cases every day.
"As cases continue to rise we have reached the next step in our management of the disease," he said.
"Our national focus should be on treating the increasing numbers affected by swine flu."
Based on expert recommendation, the country would move to a "treatment phase" with immediate effect.
"This will mean that in England the Health Protection Agency will take a step back and primary care will take the lead in diagnosing and distributing antivirals."
Predicting the huge daily rise in new cases, Mr Burnham said: "Cases are doubling every week and on this trend we could see over 100,000 cases per day by the end of August."
He added: "The pressure on the system is such that it is the right time to take this step.
"Scientists can expect to see rapid rises in the number of cases."
The Health Protection Agency will take a step back from dealing with the outbreak.
The daily updates on confirmed cases will end and "more general" estimates of numbers will be given.
Efforts to trace people who have been in contact with swine flu cases will stop and schools will not need to close when hit by the virus, unless particular circumstances make it necessary.
Following the outbreak, "three people have sadly died", Mr Burnham noted, adding they each had underlying health problems.
Mr Burnham said there would be an immediate end to contact tracing in all regions.
GPs would now provide clinical diagnosis of swine flu cases, rather than awaiting test results.
Primary care trusts would begin to establish antiviral collection points where necessary.
Schools should not close because of individual cases but could do so if the local circumstances warranted it.
Ministers had decided on a "step by step approach" on the distribution of antivirals.
"This means that in the outbreak management phase, we will continue to offer antivirals to all those who have contracted the illness," Mr Burnham said.
"However, it remains a matter of clinical discretion to decide whether antivirals should be prescribed in individual cases."
Doctors would be given guidance to ensure those at higher risk got earlier priority access to antivirals.
Mr Burnham said the UK was much closer to the time when the first doses of pandemic flu vaccine would arrive, potentially offering high protection.
In the meantime it was prudent to use antivirals to the "maximum effect" although it was likely a more "targeted approach" would be adopted later.
"Most cases of swine flu have not been severe and we are in a strong position to deal with this pandemic," he said.
"But we must not become complacent and, while doubt remains about the way the virus attacks different groups, today's decision on the move to the treatment phase reflects our caution."
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Saturday 11 February 2012
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