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Industry Eye: An enormous task to prevent the world from running out of food
Our supermarket shelves overflow with an embarrassing array of goods. Most people have little idea of where it all comes from and probably don't care.
There is ample, and they do not need to care.
But the startling fact is that the world is running out of food. Over the past century, a tripling of yields has helped us to keep pace with rampant demand, but now yields are levelling off.
Grain is the biggest trading commodity in the world.
Remember those "grain mountains" of 20 years ago? Well, they have gone and the larder stocks are dwindling – to the equivalent of just two months' supply now.
Put it another way – we need a reasonable harvest somewhere in the world every two months on average or we will start running short.
There are three principal factors driving the market. The first is the world population, which is growing at an alarming rate.
A rise from six to nine billion by 2050 means an extra 60 million people to feed every year – the equivalent of the UK population.
But that is becoming more difficult to do because the second factor – climate change – is reducing our ability to produce.
In particular, important food-producing areas of the world are running out of water and other low-lying areas are in danger of flooding as icecaps melt.
Global warming is increasing the prevalence of large-scale disease outbreaks too.
The third factor is that we are running out of fuel; in addition, most Western countries want more security of supply.
This is causing large areas of land to be used for growing crops for fuel – particularly bio-ethanol and bio-diesel. A third of the US maize harvest is likely to be used for fuel production next year.
The EU has determined that 5 per cent of road transport fuel must come from renewable sources by 2013. If we were to satisfy this from our own resources – which we won't, but even if we did – then approximately 30 per cent of our arable land area would be required for the purpose.
The situation is very worrying.
As for the credit crunch, it is amazing that our Government seems so blinkered to the inevitable and impending arrival of an enormous world problem.
What should be done? We must ensure that UK agriculture is in the best of heart; that we achieve an appropriate and sustainable balance between the environment and food production; that we invest in appropriate technological and genetic advances at the earliest opportunity; that we reduce waste; and we encourage greater consumption locally of grown produce.
It is an enormous task – and one with the potential to provide rich pickings for growers. At least one sector of the economy is looking effective…
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Saturday 11 February 2012
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