Sponsored by
Climate expert who stirred up a storm
Piers Forster is one of the scientists who won this year's Nobel Peace Prize. Chris Bond spoke to him about the impact of climate change and getting hate mail from Al Gore's fans.
YOU might think that being a Nobel Prize winner would bring nothing but warm praise and congratulations. It seems, though, that hell hath no fury like the supporters of a politician scorned, as Dr Piers Forster discovered.
The Leeds University researcher was among scores of scientists on the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) recently awarded the Nobel Peace Prize for its Climate Change 2007 report. The award was jointly shared with former US vice-president Al Gore, who produced the documentary film An Inconvenient Truth.
After hearing the news, Dr Forster said it was every scientist's dream to win a Nobel Prize before adding: "It's perhaps a little deflating though, that one man and his PowerPoint show has as much influence as the decades of dedicated work by so many scientists."
His gentle dig at Al Gore made its way into both the New York Times and the Washington Post prompting fans of the eco-talisman to fire several missives his way.
"I had about 15 or 20 emails saying things like, 'You are a small insignificant worm and Al Gore is a giant and we adore him'. Others said they were going to destroy my reputation."
Sitting in his office at the university's School of Earth and Environment, the research director seems a little non-plussed by this invective, although he stands by what
he said.
"I think he (Gore] did a really good job publicising the issue and we definitely have to have people like him to get the message out there, but it is a bit frustrating.
"I got a phone call from a friend in Norway shortly before the prize winners were announced, tipping me off that the IPCC was going to win.
"I thought, 'Excellent we've won the Nobel Prize' and then when I saw it on the BBC website it said something like 'Al Gore and the IPCC', making us sound like his sidekicks, and we're not."
Dr Forster has carried out research for the IPCC for several years and was one of 10 lead authors on the climate change report. The mammoth study comprises four weighty tomes with the final volume, a summary of the key findings, being presented to the world in Valencia next week.
Although there have been numerous high-profile studies into the causes of climate change, what makes the IPCC's report unique is the 110 participating countries had to agree on a series of basic assumptions – the key one being a 90 per cent certainty that climate change was being caused by mankind.
Dr Forster led an international team of 18 scientists exploring the causes of climate change, feeding into the report's main prediction that temperatures will increase by between two and four degrees by 2100, with sea levels rising by as much as 43cm.
Despite this overwhelming scientific opinion there are still many people unconvinced by such findings.
"Those who tend to be most dubious appear to be members of the public and in this country there seems to be a general mistrust of scientists, whether it's about BSE or climate change.
"But people don't appreciate that most documents on climate change are based around an international consensus that involves hundreds of scientists and publications."
He believes this scepticism is fuelled by alarmist headlines of the "we're all doomed" variety which, rather than acting as a wake-up call, simply antagonise people.
"The one Al Gore's quite keen on is that the Greenland ice sheet will completely collapse by 2030. But if you look at our report we, say it's more likely to be in the next 1,000 to 10,000 years.
"This just confuses people because when 2030 does come they are going to say, 'the ice sheet is still here'. Or perhaps it won't be, in which case we'll all be screwed."
Dr Forster also says that the IPCC's forecasts are deliberately conservative.
"It's important not to overblow what we're predicting because what we are saying is quite devastatingly important, so it's vital we make our predictions as accurately as we can.
"I think over-stating the case is what made the public so confused in the first place."
So where does that leave us? "If you look at the mainstream evidence you can say, 'Yes climate change is occurring and we are absolutely sure we are causing it'. But we don't know if it will have a devastating impact in the next 20 or 30 years."
As part of his research, the 39 year-old examined the impact of aircraft emissions, and made some interesting discoveries.
"We found that contrails only really heat up the climate at night time because they act like a greenhouse gas, a blanket keeping the earth warm.
"But during the day, contrails act as reflectors, keeping the earth cool. We found that if airplanes only flew during the day, heating through contrails would disappear and we calculated this was equivalent to a one or two per cent reduction in carbon dioxide."
Dr Forster admits that even if nocturnal flights stopped, it would be little more than a drop in the ocean.
Carbon dioxide emissions continue to increase as the West simply exports its emissions to China and India, which won't change until an international agreement on emissions is reached.
"If we are going to solve the problem, my hunch is that it will come from technology of some kind, perhaps through geo-engineering.
"We have increased the earth's temperature by pumping out a lot of carbon dioxide, so perhaps it would be possible to cool the earth by doing something to modify the earth's energy balance in a different way.
"For example, by adding reflective particles to the stratosphere these could reflect the sun's radiation back into space, thereby cooling the earth."
Despite the gloomy predictions, Dr Forster believes that global warming could be beneficial to places like Yorkshire.
"We might do quite well from climate change, we won't suffer the extreme climate change that is expected in places like Canada.
"Crops will probably grow better in a warmer climate and we won't have to spend so much on central heating."
At the same time, he thinks the Gulf Stream will prevent temperatures going through the roof. "The current keeps us warmer than equivalent places at the same latitude and we expect this to slow down. This will provide a degree of cooling, although not enough to cancel out the warming effects of CO2," he says. "So I would still envisage us having a Costa del Northumberland and vineyards growing in the Dales."
Email to a friend
Print this page- Leeds lose Ward to Palace: Is there anyone they can afford now?
- Sheffield Wednesday leaving it late to hijack Leeds United over Ward
- As Snodgrass dithers over Leeds, Warnock throws a lifeline
- Ball is in Leeds United’s court over contract - Snodgrass
- Police turning blind eye to Asian voter fraud, says MP
Looking for...
Featured advertisers
Jobs
Search for a job
Motors
Search for a car
Property
Search for a house
Weather for Yorkshire
Saturday 26 May 2012
Today
Sunny
Temperature: 8 C to 21 C
Wind Speed: 17 mph
Wind direction: East
Tomorrow
Sunny
Temperature: 9 C to 22 C
Wind Speed: 13 mph
Wind direction: East
