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Dispatches from the frontline of a mission to save the world
The Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy was recently launched at Leeds University to drive forward the green agenda. Here six of its top scientists discuss the key issues.
When it comes to climate change, breaking the deadlock between world leaders and setting global targets is an unenviable task.
For years those who wanted the green agenda at the top of everyone's priorities has watched as the world has taken two steps forward, one step back. Recently, Leeds University launched its new climate change research centre with the aim of tackling future environmental issues.
With Lord Stern, author of the influential Stern report in 2006 and a research grant of 5m, it will have more elbow than many organisations, but as the scientists involved admit, the
battle to avoid the worst possible impacts of climate change will not be easy.
Prof Andrew Gouldson, director of the ESRC (Economic and Social Research Council) Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy.
Last year, the Government adopted a ground-breaking new Climate Change Act. It commits the UK to 80 per cent reductions in carbon dioxide and other emissions by 2050 – but what this challenging goal will mean for key economic sectors and businesses, and for local communities and households, is not yet clear.
The Act also calls for the physical risks of climate change to be systematically assessed and managed. But these risks are still poorly understood: despite a strong consensus that the climate is changing, it is not yet clear how this will impact on weather and climate and all of the things that depend on this at the local level.
In both of these areas, it is clear that some communities, businesses and individuals will be more adaptable and resilient,and will find new ways of reducing their carbon footprint and avoiding or managing the impacts of climate change. A key aspect of the centre will be to build our understanding of how we can best enable others – and particularly the vulnerable – to adapt to this changing world.
Dr Tim Foxon, academic fellow in energy policy.
There will need to be a dramatic change in the way that we produce and use energy. Incentives will be needed to achieve the rapid development and use of renewables and other low carbon technologies.
Initially, some of these options will be more expensive than current high carbon alternatives, such as coal and natural gas. So these incentives will need to be balanced by other measures, such as reducing energy losses from buildings, so that people who live in old, poorly insulated houses are not penalised.
The centre will develop and test methods to help businesses accurately account for their carbon emissions.
It will also examine how new schemes, like emissions trading, can help ensure a flow of carbon finance from rich to poor countries to help them reduce their emissions and participate in a "new global deal" to stabilise the climate system.
Dr Jouni Paavola, reader in sustainability
It is already too late to completely avoid climate change – so we must prepare for its coming impacts and adapt to life in a changing world.
To date, policymakers have focused on reaching international agreements, both on how to mitigate climate change and how to adapt to it, though new voluntary initiatives have begun to emerge. Research at the centre will explore the prospects and potential of these twin approaches to managing climate change.
We will have to study the social justice aspects of climate change in detail, examining what human rights questions will be thrown up by climate change, and how these rights can be respected as we devise new strategies. We will also examine what should be done to protect the elderly in the UK from heatwaves and how we can support the rural poor in developing countries during times of drought.
Prof Piers Forster, professor of climate science
After nearly two decades of researching global warming, it's time I changed discipline. During this period, the science community has shown that, on average, the world is warming, humans are causing it and we have many decades of warming still to come.
But no-one will be living in this world of global averages. People in Halifax, Harrogate or Harare will not just witness some average temperature, but possible heat-waves, storms, droughts or floods. It is these local changes that will impact on people's lives, and adaptation to these changes will happen locally.
Unfortunately, our physical models that we trust for global temperature change have trouble predicting at a regional scale.
There is some confidence that the UK will have wetter winters,
but in places where every drop of rainfall counts, such as the
Sahel region of Africa, we cannot even say if it will get wetter or drier.
One of the first tasks of the centre will be to quantify just how far we can push climate predictions before we run up against the inherent uncertainty of the weather.
We must give public and planners alike the most accurate predictions possible and an understanding of the uncertainties involved.
It's time to stop studying global warming and to start studying climate change.
Dr Andy Dougill, head of the school of earth and environment
For me, climate change isn't just about the plight of polar bears, it's about the lives of people across the globe. What we need most desperately to help us combat climate change are hard-hitting education programmes and media campaigns which bring home the impact that our actions are already having. Our lifestyles are already moving many millions more people into poverty, suffering and a struggle for survival. In this interconnected world we can no longer afford to see the enhanced droughts and flooding in developing nations as problems that do not concern us and for which we hold no blame.
Educating the next generation in schools and launching advertising campaigns are two key early steps in putting pressure on us all to do our bit in reducing the impacts of climate change. Simple messages from voices around the world will remind us that each of our actions can help reduce the suffering faced now, as well as that of our children.
Dr Andy Challinor, lecturer
Scientists like to be able to predict the future for good reason. Understanding how crop yields will react to climate change will help secure the food supply in some of the world's poorest nations. However, since food supply is influenced by a range of factors, scientists urgently need to work together to achieve this goal.
Unpredictable weather patterns in the tropics, where most of the world's food is grown, are already leading to increasing pressure on food production. As climate changes, some crops will not be able to grow properly, while others may fail completely.
If we are to adapt, physicists, biologists, behavioural scientists, chemists and atmospheric scientists must join forces to take a comprehensive look at building a sustainable future.
We have to look beyond our own narrow disciplines and start combining the models with our observations of climate change to make better predictions.
By doing this, scientists can help farmers make decisions about when and what to plant, when to irrigate and when to harvest, in order to maximise their yields – ultimately securing the future food supply of the planet.
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Saturday 11 February 2012
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