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From meltdown to mobs, the changing shape of things to come
Predicting trends is not an exact science.
However, for the last 15 years, Marian Salzman has earned something of a reputation for having her finger on the pulse long before anyone else.
From the emergence of online shopping, to the phenomenon of social networking and the increasing influence of China and India, she was recently named as one of the world's top five trendspotters.
With the last 12 months having shaken the foundations of everything we took for granted and with many people still facing an uncertain future as the New Year dawns, Marian knows that this year her thoughts on the year ahead will be more eagerly anticipated than normal.
"Having lived through the worst economic meltdown since the 1930s, the world does seem like a very different place," she says. "It has affected every aspect of lives – social, political, ecological, but the first signs that all was not well, came a little while before the crash.
"A couple of years ago, we started noticing that people were staying at home for their summer holidays and that they had lost their lust for shopping. While a lot of people were surprised by the extent of the collapse, there was already a sense that the good times couldn't keep on rolling.
"Now it's a question of rebuilding and with the slate having been wiped clean, the years to come will hopefully be a chance for people to change the way they live."
A couple of decades ago, trends tended to be specific to individual countries, but not any more. International borders are no longer a barrier to global fads and fashions and the differences between
cultures have gradually been eroded.
"I first came to Britain in 1973 and everything about the place was completely foreign," says Marian, who grew up in America. "Nothing I had experienced in my life up until that point seemed to bear any relation to what I found over here. In the US, our dads drove big cars, our mums seemed more liberated and we ate fast food. Whenever I opened my mouth, I was aware that whatever I said people would likely look at me strangely. Much has changed in a short space of time. Now we all share so much in common and, largely because of the internet, trends spread so quickly. The old saying, 'It's a small world' has never been more true."
Mob rule
The last couple of years has seen a rise of social media, with Facebook and MySpace enjoying unprecedented high profiles. However, in 2010 expect those sites, and others like them, to be harnessed for more political ends. Flash mobs are just a click away, popping up to respond immediately to issues of the day, and if they involve a celebrity or a politician, so much the better.
The online wave of support which swept Rage Against the Machine to number one was only the start. Such is the power of mob action, it will often overwhelm the issue itself to become the story. And with easy access to contact details and subscriber lists, we will also become easy targets for bombardment by both bureaucracy and advertisers.
Brand baby
When it comes to the rich and famous, parent and child will increasingly share the celebrity spotlight, with every marketing potential fully exploited. Madonna's recent tour benefited hugely from the participation of her children in videos and on stage, and the offspring of bands from the Stones to Duran Duran will lend advertising campaigns instant rock 'n' roll glamour. Plus, with style blogs by children as young as eight developing a huge following, there is no doubt that you're never too young to have influence.
Grey matters
We might be able to fight the signs of ageing with a little nip and tuck, but the next few years will see an increased emphasis on the health of our brains. As life expectancy in the developed world continues to grow and governments worried about the soaring cost of healthcare, keeping mentally agile will be given the same priority as physical fitness in the past, with gyms and health clubs branching out into more cerebral exercises.
The return of community spirit
While people might not know the name of their next door neighbours, the basic need to be surrounded by like-minded people has never been greater. As we all realise there is safety in numbers, people will seek out those with similar interests and beliefs through the internet and together they will begin to effect real change.
Honesty
The currency of honesty has found a new value with a public sickened by years of deceit. The very public exposure of deception in parliament over MPs' expenses and in the financial world over the profits made from trading in unsustainable debt, has sharpened a new appetite for honesty, trust and fairness. While the ordinary person struggles with worries about the basics – employment, debt, pensions – the peccadilloes of public figures no longer incite outrage. David Letterman paved the way in the United States for other high-profile people to confess their private weaknesses with his frank admission of his sexual activities, which was notable for the lack of public outcry.
The shadow of the bomb, again
The atomic bomb cast a long and menacing shadow over the world well into the '80s, with the then two major world powers engaged in a bitter Cold War – a nail-biting poker game, played for global stakes. Glasnost and Perestroika ushered in a new era, removing the nuclear threat for a generation or so, but we now have a new set of players reviving the game. Iran, North Korea, Pakistan and, possibly, terrorist groups, are all waiting to set the stakes higher.
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Saturday 26 May 2012
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