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Christopher Walker: Gaza crisis re-opens wounds in the Middle East
AS the huge Israeli military operation in Gaza moves toward its second week, there are growing indications that among its most significant side effects are the re-opening of serious divisions in the Arab world that last appeared at their most red and raw during the bloody 34-day war between Israel and the Iranian-backed Hezbollah militia in southern Lebanon in summer 2006.
Then, as now, the fighting and the allegedly disproportionate Israeli response to rocket attacks on its border towns (on that occasion, in the north rather than the south of the Jewish state and much exacerbated by the kidnap of two Israeli soldiers) has served to play up the internal instability of those states considered as moderate and pro-Western in the Middle East that have a significant Islamic threat to deal with.
Number one on the list of the 22 members of the Arab League with fresh troubles is Egypt, where the long standing Muslim Brotherhood (the ideological father of Hamas in Gaza) plays an uneasy role as the main unofficial opposition, although the legal standing of its members is uncertain and their antipathy to the ruling regime of veteran President Hosni Mubarak a constant source of concern in Washington.
After a week of Israeli strikes on Gaza, whose savage nature has been highlighted by the reporting of the Arab satellite TV stations like Qatar-based Al Jazeera, which show much more gory footage than western equivalents like the BBC, popular anger is sharpening against Egypt in particular.
There have been huge street demonstrations daily in Arab capitals, stretching geographically from North Africa to Yemen, in which Egypt – the first Arab state to make peace with the Jewish State – has been depicted as little more than a Zionist stooge.
Among the attacks on Egypt's stance has been a typically fiery speech from Iran's President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who made little effort to disguise the direction of his verbal barb against the land of the Pharaohs (and the Arab world's most populous states with 80 million-plus inhabitants) when he said "those who link their interests to the interests of Zionists will go to hell".
Mubarak, who became Egyptian leader in 1981 after his distinguished predecessor, Anwar Sadat, was mown down by a hail of bullets fired by an Islamic fanatic, is widely seen in much of the Arab world as having aided the Israeli assault through his initial closure of the Gaza border, preventing hapless Palestinian refugees fleeing from the fighting.
As the death toll in Gaza headed inexorably towards 400 and TV images of funerals under the Green Islamic flag multiplied, Mubarak – now in his 70s and rumoured to be grooming his youngest son, Gamal, a former merchant banker, for the succession – gave a televised address to defend his decision not to open the border with Gaza except for humanitarian purposes and derided "those who are seeking political gains at the expense of the Palestinian people".
In Western capitals, although it is recognised that Egyptian democracy leaves much to be desired, Mubarak is regarded as a vital link to maintaining the stability of the whole Middle East and its vital oil reserves. "If he went down like his predecessor it could be the domino scenario all over again, with moderate Arab regimes tumbling throughout the region," said one European diplomat based in Cairo.
Adding to Western concern about the latest upsurge of turbulence in the region, other moderate Arab governments like Jordan – ruled by King Abdullah, who speaks better English than he does Arabic – and Saudi Arabia, whose ruler is a key US ally – have also drawn criticism for failing to take a stronger stand over Israel's anti-Hamas operation.
On the other side of the coin, just as happened in 2006 with the botched Israeli war against Hezbollah, it has been the two most radical states in the region, Iran and Syria, which have drawn praise from the Arab street for the militancy of their stand – with Iran even going so far as to talk of raising volunteers to fight alongside the Palestinian fighters of Hamas. Thus, in the space of one week, has the curiously named Israeli Operation Cast Lead (so named after the spinning top cast from solid lead during the winter Jewish festival of Hanukka) wreaked diplomatic havoc throughout the Middle East and raised a string of questions about its prospects in 2009.
More than anything, it has added to the urgency of incoming US President Barack Obama and his untried Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton, devoting their main attention to looking towards solutions as soon as possible after he succeeds President George W Bush on January 20.
The fighting to date has exposed the main problem facing Egypt which is being, in effect, trapped uncomfortably between Israel (with which, along with Jordan, it is the only Arab state to enjoy full diplomatic relations) and Hamas, which enjoys wide popular support among ordinary Egyptians.
While Mubarak would dearly love to see the back of Hamas, he is savvy enough to be aware of the dangerous wave of public anger that he would provoke if he did anything that was remotely seen as endorsing Israeli violence towards the Palestinians.
Which is one reason why Egypt, alongside Jordan and Dubai, another pro-western Arab state, took the precaution of very publicly scrapping official New Year's celebrations on December 31 in sympathy with those described fulsomely as their "Palestinian brothers".
Christopher Walker is a former Middle East correspondent for
The Times
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Saturday 26 May 2012
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