Bernard Ingham: Theresa May lagging behind Margaret Thatcher after first year in office

TOMORROW Theresa May will have been our Prime Minister for exactly one year. She was the longest-serving Home Secretary for 60 years and then had a record honeymoon in No 10 with a 23-point lead in the polls over Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn at one stage.
Theresa May at 10 Downing Street, but how many marks out of 10 does she deserve for the first year of her premiership?Theresa May at 10 Downing Street, but how many marks out of 10 does she deserve for the first year of her premiership?
Theresa May at 10 Downing Street, but how many marks out of 10 does she deserve for the first year of her premiership?

Now she is reduced to near-pleading with her own side and an irresponsible Opposition to build a post-Brexit Britain that “works for everyone and not just the privileged few”.

Her plight will inevitably be compared with that of our first female PM, Margaret Thatcher, even though they have in common only their gender and a gutsy determination to do the right thing as they see it, born of their religious upbringings.

They inherited widely differing circumstances, too.

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In 1979/80 not many thought Thatcher would survive, even with a working majority of 43, because Britain was felt to be ungovernable. Strikes were rife after the Winter of Discontent, spending and borrowing out of control, unemployment rising and inflation in double figures, with interest rates even touching 17.4 per cent.

Britain was going downhill fast. The Establishment was utterly defeated.

The IRA were doing their worst. In one afternoon they killed 18 British troops at Warrenpoint. Russia invaded Afghanistan, and Iraq and Iran went to war as the FCO negotiated Rhodesian independence.

May inherited a different, though more decadent, Britain. Inflation was and remains low, employment at record levels despite still nearly 1.5 million out of work, but with a budget deficit of £50bn – a Labour legacy – and soaring public debt.

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According to many – and not just Corbyn – Britain is also fed up with nine years of “austerity” after the 2007/08 crash. Austerity is, of course, more imagined than real since we have been living beyond our means for nearly 20 years. It is nonetheless a political problem with an Opposition that believes in living on tick.

May has Islamic instead of Irish Nationalist terrorism to contend with, the Middle East in turmoil – so what’s new? – and immigration that seems to be barely under control and a serious political concern. And, to echo President Trump, has Europe the will to survive with Vladimir Putin probing and destabilising the West?

Neither May nor Thatcher had an easy hand to play, though Thatcher’s looked the more challenging notwithstanding May’s Brexit. Interestingly, Thatcher was also embroiled with Europe in seeking to reduce the UK’s contribution to Brussels. Both were gamblers. Thatcher gambled with the “greatest political and economic punt in post-war Parliamentary history” with a very tough first Budget that nearly doubled VAT but cut corporate and top taxes.

Through her first Budget and Queen’s Speech she told the nation things were going to change. The emphasis was on living within our means, encouraging industry and entrepreneurs to increase the “cake” and foreshadowing privatisation and more property ownership, partly through the right to buy heavily-discounted, council-owned homes.

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A lot of Tory wets feared the worst, but eventually she did change Britain for the better and made herself such an eternal enemy of the hard left that the authorities now fear raising a statue to her in Parliament Square will provoke vandals.

In contrast, May gambled – and again in yesterday’s speech – by veering left not right through her declaration on taking office and an election manifesto to try to strengthen her Brexit hand. This manifesto was nearly – but not quite – the equivalent of Michael Foot’s “longest suicide note in history” in 1983.

This self-proclaimed One Nation Conservative made it harder for herself with her Stupid Party who are now proving that, like Thatcher, she cannot expect much help from some of her colleagues. That does not mean she will not recover, especially if she negotiates a clear and permanent break with the EU.

My marks for Thatcher and May on their first year’s performance:

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Both 10 out of 10 for getting to No 10, for guts, determination and recognising the national interest. May knows her job is to keep Corbyn out of No 10.

For political conviction: Thatcher 10, May 5. Leadership: Thatcher 10, May 7. Setting a clear agenda: Thatcher 10, May 3. Presentation: Thatcher 6, May 3. Passion: Thatcher 10, ice-cold May 5. Potential (as viewed after their first year): Thatcher 2, May 2, depending on Brexit and how stupid her party can get.

May will do better only if, Brexit apart, she listens to her colleagues and puts the economy first. That’s how to help the many rather than the few – and make Corbynistas foam at the mouth.