Bill Carmichael: The rise of Donald Trump represents a failure of politics

FOR months now we have been reliably informed that Donald Trump is a clown, a buffoon and an absolute joke with no chance of becoming the Republican candidate for US President.
Donald Trump is exploiting the public's mistrust of politicians.Donald Trump is exploiting the public's mistrust of politicians.
Donald Trump is exploiting the public's mistrust of politicians.

Yet this week he all but secured the nomination, and in all likelihood he will face off with the presumptive Democratic nominee, Hillary Clinton, in November’s presidential election. How in heaven’s name did that happen?

Let make it clear – I am no Trump supporter, although I do find him a fascinating political phenomena.

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He is a weird, hard to pin down, mixture of left and right. For example, he supports protectionist trade policies to preserve American jobs that are right out of the Bernie Sanders socialist playbook.

But he is also in favour of building a fence to keep Mexican immigrants out of the US and advocated a temporary ban on Muslims visiting the country to prevent terror attacks, which appeal to more conservative instincts.

Perhaps that is his strength?

The closest comparison we have in the UK is Ukip, which has made inroads into Labour’s traditional northern strongholds by calling for immigration to be restricted to protect working class jobs and relieve pressures on schools and hospitals.

Trump is also something of a loose cannon when it comes to speaking off the cuff, often making outrageous statements that many find offensive – for example, he claimed a woman TV reporter had been critical of him because she was menstruating.

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One problem is that you never quite know what he will say next, but again perhaps that is part of his maverick appeal.

The rise of Trump is not just about the individual himself, because it says something more interesting about what is happening in the electorate.

We are in the midst of a counter-establishment insurgency both in the US and in Europe, where other ‘non-mainstream’ political figures, including our own Jeremy Corbyn, have found growing support. The more the political elite in the US criticised Trump, the more his popularity grew. Every time he committed some dreadful gaffe, and the political pundits confidently predicted it would mark the end of his campaign, more people flocked to his banner.

Perhaps one simple and remarkable truth is that we don’t believe the political elites any more. They have lied to the people so often, and become so used to getting away with it that they no longer cared, and now suddenly we discover their influence and political capital is at an all time low.

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Rather than being warned off by predictions of disaster if Trump was nominated, grassroots Republicans in the US ignored their leadership and voted for the outsider.

By all predictions, November’s election will be a one-sided affair. Polls put Clinton streets ahead of Trump, and his poll ratings are particularly dire among key demographic groups such as women, the young and Hispanics.

So Trump is the underdog – exactly how he would like it. Clinton, on the other hand, is the archetypical establishment figure whose entire political career has been light on achievement and heavy on scandal. And she follows Democrat Barack Obama who will surely go down as the weakest US president in living memory. Expect a dirty, no holds barred fight for the White House.

And do we not see echoes of this counter-establishment insurgency in our own EU referendum campaign?

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The establishment big guns have been wheeled out to pulverize the Leave campaign with ever more hysterical predictions of Armageddon and the End Times if we reject the EU.

All trade with Europe will stop, we’ll be banned from going on holiday to Europe, leaving will cost each household £4,300, British pensioners will have to airlifted out of the Costa del Sol etc.

Cameron, Blair, Osborne, Mandelson – all making attack after attack with ever more preposterous claims. Ed Miliband even claimed this week that if the UK leaves the EU it will destroy the planet!

You would expect that with the combined weight of the political establishment lined up against them the Leave campaign would be destroyed by now. But it isn’t happening. Sure they are behind in the polls, but they are still in the game and a lot can happen between now and June 23.

Perhaps, like in the US, people simply don’t believe what the political elites are telling them any more. Is there just a whiff of panic in the air?