YP Letters: Feedback loop threatens as permafrost thaws

From: A Davies, Augusta Park, Grimsby.
Scientists are concerned about the impact of climate change. (PA).Scientists are concerned about the impact of climate change. (PA).
Scientists are concerned about the impact of climate change. (PA).

Gerald Tinsley (The Yorkshire Post, April 17) expresses concern at the way in which the thawing of the Siberian permafrost and the consequent release of methane are interpreted by climate scientists.

I came across the idea in John Gribbin’s writing around 1980. He presented an account of the process in a readily understood manner.

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The long-frozen tundra traps methane hydrates, loose compounds which are stable at Arctic temperatures. With global warming, thawing takes place, and the now liquid compounds give off methane which is a more powerful greenhouse gas than CO2.

Methane is then emitted into the atmosphere, adding to the effect of CO2.

This begins a process of positive feedback – temperatures rise further and faster, more thawing takes place more CH4 is released and the process becomes irreversible.

There is a further point meriting comment. Mr Tinley’s fourth paragraph begins “In concluding this, they fell into a well-known statistical trap”.

Does he really think that a world wide community of outstanding scientists are unaware of the so-called trap – of which I learnt in first year statistics classes?

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