Pollwatch: 38 days to go and Tories almost level

David Cameron leaves Downing Street for a private audience with the Queen
David Cameron leaves Downing Street for a private audience with the Queen
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The Conservative Party has almost drawn level with Labour in the Press Association’s poll of polls.

With 38 days to go until the general election, the Tories are currently on 33.6%, just 0.2 points behind Labour on 33.8%.

Ukip have slipped slightly in recent days, but remain in third place on 13.4%. The Liberal Democrats are fourth on 7.9% and the Greens fifth on 5.6%.

On the first official day of the election campaign, there is still no sign of either of the main parties moving into a clear lead.

The poll of polls is calculated using a rolling average of every nationwide poll published in the last seven days.

Its figures confirm the trend of the past few months that the UK is on course for another hung parliament. No party is likely to win the 326 seats needed to form a majority in the House of Commons - something reinforced by the latest projections of the election result.

The Guardian is forecasting the Tories to win 277 seats, with Labour on 269, the SNP 53, the Lib Dems 25, Ukip 4, the Greens 1 and others 21.

The New Statesman’s election website May2015.com puts the Tories on 275 and Labour on 269. The SNP is on 55, the Lib Dems 24, Ukip 5, the Greens 0 and others 22.

The website ElectionForecast.co.uk, run by a team of academics, currently predicts the Tories to win 282 seats, with Labour on 281, the SNP 36, the Lib Dems 27, Ukip 1, the Greens 1 and others 22.

Together, these predictions give the Conservatives an average lead over Labour of five seats.

Two new polls were published in the past 24 hours.

A survey by YouGov put Labour on 36% (+2), the Tories on 32% (-4), Ukip on 13% (nc), the Lib Dems on 8% (+1) and the Greens on 6% (+1).

A poll by ComRes put the Tories on 36% (+1), Labour on 32% (-3), Ukip on 12% (+2), the Lib Dems on 9% (+1) and the Greens on 5% (-2).


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