Revealed: The sectors that will benefit and be harmed by the vote to remain or leave

Investment into Yorkshire could slow as the result of a vote to exit the European Union, but large multi-nationals could benefit from the resultant short-term decline in Sterling, one of the region's leading stockbrokers has claimed.

James Andrews, head of investment management at Redmayne Bentley, told The Yorkshire Post that the uncertainty that a Brexit vote would cause would mean overseas investors may view the region as unattractive given the lack of clarity over the fresh trade deals which will need to be struck with individual countries.

Mr Andrews said: “If a company is considering investing in building a factory in Yorkshire or in Germany, where we know the trading rules won’t change, there will more certainty for them.

Hide Ad
Hide Ad

“Certainly in the short-term we can expect foreign investment into the UK to slow.”

European and British flags.European and British flags.
European and British flags.

However, Mr Andrews said he felt that large-scale companies who do a great deal of business overseas, would have opportunities within the uncertainty to benefit from the widely-anticipated decline in the value of the pound if the country votes to leave.

Mr Andrew was speaking after Redmayne Bentley published analysis of who the principal beneficiaries and losers would be depending of each possible scenario from today’s vote.

While many commentators have claimed that a vote to remain in the EU will for the most part entail ‘business as usual’ there are several sectors who will be impacted upon by a either outcome.

Hide Ad
Hide Ad

Redmayne’s research showed that if Britain votes to remain, the banking sector will enjoy a significant boost.

The costs associated with leaving and the potential future difficulties of financial transactions across borders would be avoided, it claimed. Recently analysts at Jefferies argued that Barclays could be the bank most affected as shares are highly correlated to Sterling.

Elsewhere Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) average 55 per cent of their investments in London, so a vote to stay could be positive for investors in property as it could strengthen demand from overseas.

Prime Minister David Cameron has argued that house prices could fall as a result of a leave vote, so a result to remain could boost sentiment towards housebuilders such as Berkeley or Barratt Developments.

Hide Ad
Hide Ad

Conversely a vote to remain could impinge upon utility companies in the short-term as the likes of British Gas owner Centrica are particularly affected by EU regulation which pushes up costs when compared to, for example, the US.

Mandatory Credit: Photo by Sipa Press / Rex Features ( 1004603d )
The 'Berlaymont' - the headquarters of the European Commission, which is the executive of the European Union, is situated in the 'European District' of Brussels, Belgium
Brussels, Belgium - 2008Mandatory Credit: Photo by Sipa Press / Rex Features ( 1004603d )
The 'Berlaymont' - the headquarters of the European Commission, which is the executive of the European Union, is situated in the 'European District' of Brussels, Belgium
Brussels, Belgium - 2008
Mandatory Credit: Photo by Sipa Press / Rex Features ( 1004603d ) The 'Berlaymont' - the headquarters of the European Commission, which is the executive of the European Union, is situated in the 'European District' of Brussels, Belgium Brussels, Belgium - 2008

On the opposite side, a vote for Brexit could provide benefits for those companies and sectors who trade outside the EU, notably the mining sector, including companies such as BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto.

Similarly, tobacco firms could also potentially benefit if the UK votes to leave. British American Tobacco is a major exporter of its products, with most of their sales occurring in markets outside the EU.

Redmayne’s analysis showed that the principal damage in the short-term from a leave vote would be the disruption to the stock market.

Hide Ad
Hide Ad

Mr Andrews said: “Plenty of cash has been sidelined as investors have looked to protect themselves from risk, opting instead for gilts or Government-backed bonds.

European and British flags.European and British flags.
European and British flags.

“The pause button has been pushed for sometime.”

Low-cost airlines, such as easyJet and Ryanair, have benefitted from the lower cost of travel afforded by membership of the EU.

Furthermore, with the likelihood of Sterling depreciating against the Euro, some may decide against a late European holiday this year, negatively affecting these and other companies within the travel and leisure sector.

With the UK perhaps becoming less attractive to visitors from within the EU, visitor attractions, such as Alton Towers run by Merlin Entertainments, and hotels like Whitbread-owned Premier Inns, are likely to experience a downturn in their fortunes as they wrestle with a decline in custom.