Brexit analysis: Two years to thrash out a deal

FROM trade rules to counterterrorism co-operation, there has been no shortage of focus on the major issues where Britain and the European Union must find agreement in the coming negotiations.
The UK will today trigger two years of intense negotiationsThe UK will today trigger two years of intense negotiations
The UK will today trigger two years of intense negotiations

But it is only looking at the whole range of areas regulated on a European basis - from aircraft safety to data management - that the scale of the task becomes apparent.

Yorkshire MEP Richard Corbett illustrates the challenge ahead by pointing to the pets passport scheme.

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“The EU has a scheme that we’ve all agree that if they’ve got the proper vaccination, the microchip and the proper piece of paper to prove it’s the right dog, then no problem, your dog can go across borders.

“If we’re leaving we won’t be part of that scheme any more so people won’t be able to take their dogs and cats on on holiday unless we agree something to replace it.

“That’s a pretty minor thing unless you’re a farmer whose farm straddles the border in Northern ireland and your sheepdog can’t go back and forth,” he said.

Theresa May has made it clear the UK will leave the European single market but has suggested remaining part of the Customs union might be possible if certain exemptions can be agreed.

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“The consequences of [leaving the Customs Union] for trade are enormous, not just for trade between us and the rest of Europe but also it means negotiating new deals with the rest of the world because our customs tariffs at the moment are the common European external tariffs,” Mr Corbett said.

The Brexit talks conjure up images of Brexit Secretary David Davis and Michel Barnier, the EU Commission’s chief negotiator, spending hours in Brussels conference rooms thrashing out a deal.

But the reality will be far more complex, involving a web of officials, member states’ Brussels representatives, European government ministers and the European Parliament. Under Article 50, the process should be completed inside two years.

“The idea you can settle all these subjects in two years is totally fanciful,” said Mr Corbett.

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“What could theoretically be done is a very minimal divorce deal settling the things that need to be settled before you leave then say everything else stays in place for the next five years or whatever as a transitional arrangement while we negotiate a final deal covering everything.”

However, any transitional deal could bring domestic political headaches for the Prime Minister as the EU would likely insist on the continuation of freedom of movement and the oversight of the European Court of Justice as part of any such agreement.

Today’s letter from the UK notifying the EU Commission will, in turn, trigger the first formal response from the remaining member states next month.

Mr Corbett said: “I think they are pretty united on the general principles, they’ll want a mutually agreeable deal on the continued residence rights of citizens on either side that have moved already. They will want a deal on outstanding liabilities and commitments on the budgetary side, they’ll want to sort out the frontiers, Northern Ireland and Gibraltar in an equitable way.”