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Tuesday, 9th February 2010

James Reed: Brown's blunder is a gift to the Tories

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Published Date:
08 October 2007
THE Prime Minister's decision not to call a general election marks an undistinguished end to his prolonged honeymoon in the job. In a matter of days he has turned from The Clunking Fist of British politics to Brown The Bottler.

At the Labour Party conference he sought to portray himself as a father-of-the-nation figure but the weekend's events showed the general public what those who have watched him closely have known for years; that he is a thoroughly political animal.

The Prime Minister's hasty retreat from an autumn election has also done much to undermine the image he has carefully cultivated since coming to office. Through the floods, foot and mouth and terrorist attacks, he was keen to be seen as the unflappable statesman who refuses to be buffeted by short-term misfortune. However, a succession of unfavourable poll results has been enough to send him running for cover.

It is an embarrassing climbdown from the Prime Minister who had allowed those around him to bring the threat of a snap election, which had lingered all through the summer, firmly into the foreground as conference season approached. He and his acolytes believed it to be a risk-free strategy to ensure party discipline during Gordon Brown's first party conference as leader and to force the Conservatives to short-circuit their policy review process, driving them into a fresh round of in-fighting.

But the tactic worked too well. It not only galvanised the Labour Party but had an even greater impact on the Tories, one which could come back to haunt Mr Brown in the weeks and months to come.

Since John Major's government limped through the Conservatives' last term in office, Labour has benefited from its main rival being riven by division. Mr Major suffered open revolt from backbenchers and, at times, from within his own Cabinet. In opposition, the party has continued to pull itself to pieces prompting the demise of another three leaders even before Mr Cameron took charge.

Yet, remarkably given their recent history, at the moment the Conservatives faced oblivion they have picked unity over division with stunning results. The Labour Party conference left the Government with a double-digit lead in the polls. Tory activists knew that kind of advantage carried into an election would be devastating and, rather than embark on a renewed civil war, they rallied round.

The party leadership helped the mood by abandoning some of the more extreme proposals put forward by its policy reviews, but, in truth, the Conservatives were never going to embrace policies such as imposing supermarket car parking charges, however well they were doing. Ditching those ideas with a flourish pleased the faithful without undermining Mr Cameron's agenda, while adopting eye-catching policies on stamp duty and inheritance tax gave activists specific pledges to sell on the doorstep.

The Conservatives' reward for their united front in Blackpool: a succession of polls putting them firmly back in the race. The lesson: unity works.

It was only after 15 years in opposition that Labour, under the leadership of Tony Blair, began to to learn that keeping internal wrangling behind closed doors pays dividends. Ironically, the Prime Minister's threat of a snap election may have helped the Conservatives finally come to terms with that fact of political life after ten years of often self-inflicted misery.

In the coming months that new-found sense of common purpose will be thoroughly tested but David Cameron now has an important weapon in his armoury. The balance of power within his party has shifted. Mr Cameron has shown the Conservatives they can succeed under his leadership, and the next time the murmurings begin the emphasis will be on the dissenters to make their case, rather than on him to justify the direction he is taking the party.

But there is still work for the new united Conservatives to do. Labour will now look to unpick the arithmetic behind the Tory stamp duty and inheritance tax polices, particularly on the amount of money that can be raised from non-domiciled tax residents.

The Conservatives must ensure the detail of those policies is sound and continue to flesh out more policies to present themselves as a competent Government-in-waiting and keep Labour on the back foot. In key areas, particularly health, the party's pitch remains vague.

Starting with his statement on Iraq today and continuing with the Comprehensive Spending Review and Pre-Budget Report tomorrow, Mr Brown will try and put the election fiasco behind him and press on with the business of Government.

However, his dalliance with a snap poll has changed the political landscape, by simultaneously opening up
new avenues of attack for his critics, raising questions
about his character amongst voters and galvanising the opposition.

In seeking to take advantage of short-term political circumstances Mr Brown may well have made it harder for himself to win an election whenever it is finally called.


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  • Last Updated: 08 October 2007 9:29 AM
  • Source: n/a
  • Location: Yorkshire
 
 

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