DAVID Cameron could not have believed his luck when he woke up on Wednesday morning – and went for his early morning bike ride.
Gordon Brown should have been basking in the warm glow of some positive media coverage after a conference speech which went down well, at least within his own party.
But the chaotic emergence of Ruth Kelly's resignation in the early hours of the f
ollowing morning meant that the Prime Minister was forced to trudge around the studios to deny more talk of Cabinet splits, opposition to his leadership and despair in the party ranks.
In one night on the conference party circuit, any hopes of Brown's own speech hours earlier being the moment that stabilised his premiership were dashed.
And, once again, Labour forgot the basic fact that the only beneficiaries from this infighting is the resurgent Tories whose own conference begins in Birmingham tomorrow.
Even a seven-point boost in the polls for Labour this week will not have been much concern for Team Cameron. A post-conference bounce is common for parties having dominated political media coverage in the preceding days.
Barring a disaster in the West Midlands, the Tories will expect to reap similar rewards in a week's time. And, if Labour continues to self-destruct in the meantime, they could expect their bounce to be much bigger and longer lasting.
The biggest obstacle now standing between the Tories and Downing Street appears to be themselves. This week they have two key tasks – firstly, to prove that they have answers to the economic crisis, and secondly, for David Cameron to look beyond his own party and show the voting public that he has substance as well as style.
Amid the recent chaos on Wall Street and in the City, many feel the Tories have simply called it wrong on the economy.
Last week, the Prime Minister did something Labour has appeared to have little stomach for of late – he took the fight to the Tories over how the Government should respond to the economic crisis. The Tories, said Mr Brown, would have "imperilled" the entire financial system by letting Northern Rock fold and opposing the recently-imposed temporary ban on short selling when the Government acted decisively.
"What has become clear is that Britain cannot trust the Conservatives to run the economy," Brown added before his withering dismissal of "novices" like David Cameron and Shadow Chancellor George Osborne being in charge of the country in these turbulent times.
For all Labour's culpability for some of the current economic chaos, Downing Street has at last appeared decisive in encouraging the rescue of HBOS by Lloyds TSB. It also appears more in tune with public distaste for City fat cats in imposing the short-selling ban and pressing for tougher regulation.
This week, above all else, Messrs Cameron and Osborne must convince the public that Mr Brown is wrong. They must make a compelling argument as to why opposing regulation is right if they are to convince people they are on their side rather than those reckless bankers who are profiteering from the misery that they have inflicted on the money markets. They must also explain what the prospect of recession means for their policy of sharing the proceeds of growth. In recent months, Mr Osborne has moved away from the initial commitment to stand by Labour's spending plans, but what about tax cuts, a ground which has now been seized by Nick Clegg and the Liberal Democrats?
Last year, it was Mr Osborne's proposals on inheritance tax and stamp duty that began to swing the political pendulum towards the Tories after the buoyant start to Mr Brown's premiership. This year we are told the economy will be conference's central theme, especially the need to convince the public at large that the Conservatives can, once again, be trusted with the nation's finances following the debacle of the early 1990s when Mr Cameron was an aide to Norman Lamont, the then Chancellor.
The other key challenge is for Mr Cameron to convince the public at large that he is not simply the salesman depicted by Labour. We should see more policies unveiled, which will help answer accusations that the party is light on detail. But Mr Cameron needs also to set out clearly the party's values and beliefs if he to challenge Labour claims of a ruthless Tory strategy to repackage an unreformed "nasty" party.
While the weakness of Mr Brown's position forced him to address his own party in his speech, Mr Cameron must address the voting public. He readily admits that he has not yet "sealed the deal" with them.
Tory members are already energised from a year in the political ascendancy. They also have an effective and much bolstered campaigning machine in place. But while by-election results in Crewe
and Nantwich and Henley were spectacular, it is unclear how much of that was simply down to protest voters who may act differently at a General Election.
If Mr Cameron can persuade the voting public both that he is ready to step into the front door of Number 10, and that his shadow Cabinet is ready to run the country, objectives that New Labour ruthlessly achieved prior to the 1997 election, he will be going a long way to sealing that deal – and being in a position to cycle up Downing Street as Prime Minister.
WHAT TO WATCH IN BIRMINGHAMGeorge Osborne set the conference alight last year with inheritance tax and stamp duty proposals – this year he must prove the economy is safe in his hands in his speech on Monday.
Could Europe come back to haunt the EU yet? It's likely to get lively at a fringe meeting on Monday – UKIP leader Nigel Farage his a speaker.
Holding a session about preparations for government is brave, so all eyes will be on any signs of over-confidence when Francis Maude and Oliver Letwin speak on Wednesday.
David Cameron needs to reach beyond the conference hall on Wednesday to show the public that he can be the next Prime Minister.
Jonathan Reed is the Yorkshire Post's political editor
The full article contains 1051 words and appears in n/a newspaper.