In the last few weeks, the Government has postponed the remaining stages of the Human Fertilisation and Embryology Bill for fear of upsetting the mainly Catholic constituents of Glasgow East, and made an early announcement that they will not be adding a further two pence to fuel duty. It seems to have escaped their notice that only four in 10 people in Glasgow East actually own a car, but I'll forgive them that.

What is unforgivable is to make an announcement, as the Government did yesterday, on reforming Britain's welfare system, which will put fear into the hearts of thousands of potential Labour voters in Glasgow East, one of the most economically deprived areas of Britain, where a shocking one in five of the population (11,600) claims incapacity benefit or severe disablement allowance. Which clot in Whitehall dreamt up that masterstroke, one wonders?

New Labour simply haven't a clue when it comes to helping the poorest in our society. Instead, they obsess over how best to win back the lost middle classes in the South of England. The uncomfortable truth is that Labour's jitters over clinging on to formerly rock-solid Glasgow East is but the latest example of the party losing its grip, even in its traditional heartlands.

While Labour still holds well over half the seats in Scotland, their total number of MPs elected in 2005 was 15 fewer than in 2001. And only last year, the Scottish National Party narrowly triumphed over Scottish Labour at the Scottish Parliamentary Elections. Moreover, Alex Salmond, the Scottish First Minister, is a shrewd political operator, certainly compared with the political pygmies lining up to fill the current vacancy in the Scottish Labour Party caused by the recent resignation of Wendy Alexander.

If we look back at the 1950s, the Conservative and Unionist Party held the largest number of seats in Scotland. Over the last half century, Labour has emerged as the establishment party in Scotland. I see no compelling reason why Salmond, now with the ball at his feet, can't lead the SNP to become the new establishment party in Scotland. And that would spell curtains for Labour's chances of clinging on to power at Westminster.

Meanwhile, in its Welsh heartlands, Labour's support is also crumbling: its vote share fell six per cent between 1997 and 2001, and by a further six per cent in 2005. And whereas at the 2003 Welsh Assembly elections, Rhodri Morgan's Labour Party was able to form a government on its own, jettisoning its coalition partners, the Liberal Democrats, by the time it came to the 2007 Welsh elections, the Welsh Labour Party did so badly that they were forced to join their old enemies, Plaid Cymru in a coalition government.

Since then, the Welsh Nationalists have been able to claim a large amount of the credit for running Wales at the expense of Labour. It's an extraordinary transformation from the days when the Welsh valleys constituencies produced such Labour giants as Keir Hardie (himself a Scot). Think of Blaenau Gwent (formerly called Ebbw Vale), which elected the great Aneurin Bevan and then Michael Foot, from 1929 right through to 1992, and which was humiliatingly lost to an Independent in 2005.

Even in the North of England, Labour is coming under pressure, this time from the Liberal Democrats. In the North West, the Liberal Democrats doubled their representation to six seats at the 2005 General Election.

Yorkshire and the Humber remains a Labour stronghold, however: the party still holds 44 out of the 56 seats in the region. Nevertheless, Labour lost both Hull and Sheffield to the Liberal Democrats at the recent local elections in May. Given the Liberal Democrats' good track record of converting local election successes into parliamentary gains, expect Labour to come under real pressure in urban areas of Yorkshire at the next election.

The North East of England is the only region where any party polled more than half the votes cast in 2005: Labour secured 53 per cent of the vote, and currently holds 28 of the 30 seats. But even here, the cracks have started to appear, especially in Newcastle-upon-Tyne, where the Liberal Democrats seized the city council from Labour in 2004. So, if you want to discover the most telling aspect of Thursday's result in Glasgow East, don't just look at the headline result (which will be very close): note the turnout. Only about a third of people, possibly less, will bother to vote. The two-thirds who don't vote are the forgotten people whom New Labour has cast adrift as a result of their constant pandering to the middle classes.

Labour's current travails bring to mind an extravagant claim made by Peter Kellner, head of the pollsters, YouGov, at an academic conference held after the 2005 General Election. Kellner claimed that in 10 or 20 years' time the two main political parties would be the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats. Labour, he argued, was slowly dying.

At the time, I recall several respected elections experts scoffing at the very idea, but as I watch Labour crumble in its heartlands, it seems as if Kellner's prophecy is slowly coming to pass.


Mark Stuart is a political analyst and historian from York who has written the biographies of Douglas Hurd and John Smith.