TONY Blair was always phlegmatic when he prepared for "the worst week of his premiership" – a media euphemism rolled out when any government is perceived to be in a crisis. He rolled up his sleeves,
got on with the job and showed some humility. He offered confidence and reassurance – traits that are proving so elusive to Gordon Brown.
Blair was not called "Teflon Tony" without good reason. After all, he stayed in office for a further 14 months after his own "week from hell" two years ago when John Prescott was caught with his trousers down, Charles Clarke lost control of immigrati
on policy and Patricia Hewitt was handbagged by the nurses.
All governments suffer mid-term crises. It goes with the territory. Seven months ago, Brown was one of the most popular leaders in history. Now he's one of the least regarded.
Yet Brown's immediate difficulties are of a different magnitude. First, he has an unhelpful reputation for dithering after abruptly calling off last autumn's planned election.
Second, most of his difficulties revolve around the economy and how hardworking families can no longer make ends meet.
And, third, the confluence of events has now caused festering discontent among the very same Labour MPs who, ironically, had plotted for years for Brown to succeed Blair, whom they erroneously viewed as an electoral liability. This is why Labour's leader has five key obstacles to overcome as he braces himself for his proverbial "week from hell" – one which will be far more politically challenging than the crisis management which sufficed last summer after a succession of unforeseen disasters.
1. Prime Minister's Questions: Brown cannot run away from today's Parliamentary ritual. He has to face down his critics. He should admit to mistakes rather than merely listing his achievements in true Stalinist-style, and then surprise his opponents by announcing, precisely and clearly, how he intends to shore up confidence in the economy – whether it be over the banking crisis, the botched abolition of the 10p tax rate or, ideally, both.
2. The 10p tax rate: It would be a dereliction of duty on the part of backbenchers if they were not championing the plight of the poor. This goes to the heart of the Labour movement.
That said, I expect Brown to narrowly win the Commons vote next Monday. Sufficient concessions will be made. The rebel leader, Frank Field, does not have a natural following at Westminster – his reputation is defined by his independence of thinking. Second, MPs might be effectively voting themselves out of their own jobs if they defeated the Finance Bill and triggered a General Election.
3. John Prescott's memoirs: Unless there are any unexpected confessions of adultery, Sunday's serialisation will almost certainly focus on the Blair-Brown relationship, and the Hull MP's role as the political equivalent of a marriage guidance counsellor. Such revelations will inevitably cast new light on the PM's character, especially as Prescott is reportedly miffed that his counsel has not been sought more often by Brown. Revenge could be in the air.
4. The local elections: It is inevitable that Labour will suffer significant losses next Thursday on top of those defeats incurred when the same seats up for grabs were last contested in 2004. Then, discontent over Iraq was at its peak. Now it is the economy. Brown's best hope is that Labour's losses are kept to a minimum, the Tories fail to make significant headway in the North and that the electorate remain unconvinced over Nick Clegg's fledgling leadership of the Liberal Democrats.
London's Mayoral race: If the maverick Boris Johnson defeats Ken Livingstone, this would be a very serious reverse indeed, as it would leave the Conservatives controlling the capital city. It is a setback that could, in time, become even greater if Johnson overcame his propensity for gaffes and became an effective Mayor. A swathe of Labour-held marginal seats would become even more vulnerable at the next election, and provoke more speculation about plots to oust Brown.
On their own, none of these events are of a sufficient magnitude – yet – to bring a premature end to Brown's premiership, not least because Labour has no obvious leader-in-waiting. However, their timing, and further looming difficulties such as the crucial vote over terror detention laws, will make it more difficult for the Government to regain its poise.
Brown's problem is that he has so few options open to him. Any policy shift will be interpreted as panic. He has no money to spend – a legacy of his recklessness during his latter years at the Treasury. And he cannot easily reshuffle his Cabinet because there is such little Ministerial talent at his disposal.
However, there are some subtle changes of emphasis that the PM should make.
Gordon Brown should stop listening to his advisers. He should revert to the core values of decency and honesty that underpinned his moralistic acceptance speech on becoming Prime Minister last June. They resonated with the nation.
This means refining his communication skills. He should be straight with voters, and show some humility, without making false promises. Too often, politicians under-estimate the virtue of contrition.
And, crucially, he should shift his key lieutenant Ed Balls, the Normanton MP, into 10 Downing Street – possibly as Deputy Prime Minister. At present, Balls is so busy briefing against rebellious MPs that he is failing to do his day job, namely running Britain's schools effectively.
A very ruthless behind-the-scenes operator, Balls should be given the key task of ensuring the public services run more smoothly and efficiently. This should lead to cuts in the public sector; a risk that the Government should take. A less bloated Civil Service will ease the crippling tax burden which is the source of so much misery. It will also signal a more austere government and challenge Labour's reputation for creating unnecessary policies that hinder the police, teachers, nurses and so on. Such an appointment would allow Gordon Brown to focus on the wider policy agenda, in particular Britain's future role on the world stage. It might also afford the Prime Minister some time off to recharge his batteries. After all, Brown has only had one day off in the past year – and even then he read some policy papers.
That, in many respects, is part of the problem. Because he
remains the ultimate control-freak, and is so tired, the PM is no longer able to see the bigger picture, and the extent to which he has lost touch with the instincts of those hardworking families who initially welcomed his Premiership with open arms.
In other words, he needs to get a grip – and fast – while he still has the chance to do so. If he doesn't, the next week may come to be regarded as the beginning of the end of Gordon Brown's reign.
