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Howard Wilkinson tips Leeds United and Sheffield United for promotion
The League Managers' Association's chairman, and the last Englishman to lead a club to the top-flight championship, offers Ian Appleyard his thoughts on how Yorkshire clubs may fare.
HOWARD WILKINSON spent 25 years in football management and was a master at the art of winning promotion.
Although his days on the touchline are now over, the man who revived the fortunes of both Leeds United and Sheffield Wednesday is still one of the most respected voices in the game.
As chairman of the League Managers' Association, 'Sergeant Wilko' maintains an active interest in the fortunes of all their members, including those at Yorkshire's eight Football League clubs.
On the eve of the new season, Wilkinson agreed to assess the prospects of each and deliver his own personal verdict on the season ahead.
Wilkinson has tipped Kevin Blackwell and Gary McAllister to push for automatic promotion with Sheffield United and Leeds United respectively, and believes Huddersfield Town's Stan Ternent and Bradford City's Stuart McCall will make their sides contenders in the play-off race.
He thinks Barnsley under Simon Davey will build on last year's performance and achieve a mid-table spot, but has concerns about the problems facing Sheffield Wednesday's Brian Laws, Doncaster Rovers' Sean O'Driscoll and Rotherham United's Mark Robins.
"People always ask 'what is success?' and the answer to that question is 'how well you have done with what you have got'," he says.
"For some, survival is success, for others, the object is stabilising and dealing with a financial situation after a step up.
"At Leeds, the fans will be demanding automatic promotion after what happened last season – and that can either be viewed as a problem or an opportunity. Similarly, Sheffield United will be looking to kick on from their finish last season and will want promotion to the Premier League."
Significantly, Wilkinson believes that both Leeds and the Blades will benefit from the timing of their managerial appointments last season.
When McAllister and Blackwell were installed in their new positions, there were still three months of the season to go.
"Both situations remind me of when I took over at Leeds (October 1988)," he says. "As a new manager, it is nice to have a few months to make your mark on a club and weigh things up so, come the close season, you can sit down with the chairman and discuss what needs to be done and he can tell you what you have got to do it with.
"In Gary's case, this may be the first time, as a manager, that he has really had to deal with high expectation. It wouldn't even matter if they had the worst group of players, Leeds would still be put up as favourites to win the league.
"Keeping up the pace last season, after the 15-point penalty, was a hell of an act because, psychologically, they were playing catch-up, but now they have a clean sheet of paper and supporters will be expecting big things."
On the Blades, Wilkinson reflects: "Kevin Blackwell will have seen enough of his mob and will now ask for more of the same. But he won't get carried away – he will probably keep reminding himself of the line from the Rudyard Kipling poem... "If you can meet with triumph and disaster, and treat those two imposters just the same". It is a short journey from hero to zero."
The Blades have one of the biggest wage bills in the Championship and receive a second 11m parachute payment from the Premier League this summer.
Blackwell, however, has caused few ripples in the transfer market, signing Greg Halford on loan, Sun Jihai on a free transfer, and David Cotterill from Wigan for an undisclosed fee.
Wilkinson says: "Some managers are good when they have money to spend, some are good at going out and working with players on the training pitch. Some managers are both. Kevin has proved that he can work with players – what he must now be dreaming about is an opportunity to prove that he can also spend.
"But Sheffield United are a very solid club," he stressed. "As an outsider, I have been very impressed by what the chairman Kevin McCabe has done there. He recognised that, if they were going to maintain Premier League football, they had to do it at a pace that suited them. They have had stability at boardroom level for a long time and he has taken the club a long way."
In stark contrast, the absence of stability at Hillsborough has long been a major problem for United's neighbours Sheffield Wednesday.
Wilkinson, who won promotion to the old First Division with the Owls during a five-year spell at the club in the Eighties, has every sympathy for manager Brian Laws and hopes that an end to the takeover saga will help improve the team's prospects.
"In my time as a manager with Boston, Notts County, Sheffield Wednesday and Leeds, I always benefited from boardroom stability," he recalls. "As soon as we had instability at Leeds, we paid a price for it.
"The problem at Hillsborough is that there has been instability at the top for as long as I can remember and that is not good. It doesn't matter how much players talk about staying professional or not being distracted by events off the pitch, I don't know too many clubs where boardroom instability has not had an adverse affect on the pitch.
"Brian has a real job on this season because instability runs right through the club.
"A lot of people are employed by a football club and they all contribute to the feelgood factor – but not if they are wondering what is going to happen all the time.
"Brian can cope with it, because he has been wearing the tin helmet for a long time, but it still won't be easy. If you are trying to re-sign your best young players, what do you say when you don't even know who owns the club?"
In Wilkinson's view, the return of a fully-fit Francis Jeffers to the Owls' attack could make a huge difference to the course of their season. The former England international striker was signed last summer for 750,000, but struggled to make any impact due to injuries.
"Francis played under me when I was in charge of the England youth team and, at 17, he was a very sophisticated player who could score goals; he had all the makings. I don't know the reasons why, but he has taken one step forward and two steps back for a long time.
"I thought that would change when he went to Arsenal, because Arsene Wenger has a knack of doing that with his players, but it wasn't so. I just hope that Brian can can get him right physically because he is the type of player who could make a big difference.
"Overall, I don't think you can expect much from Wednesday this season," he adds. "The instability at boardroom level is a problem which needs to be sorted out quickly and they could be in the relegation scrap – but I hope not."
After achieving a third promotion in six years, Doncaster return to Championship level after a
50-year absence – however, Wilkinson says that manager O'Driscoll may need to sacrifice his footballing principles in order to avoid an immediate return to League One.
"From the outside, it looks as if Doncaster are not looking to establish themselves among the promotion candidates; the object now is stabilising in the Championship and dealing with the financial situation," he says. "The train is going to slow down.
"It won't be easy for Doncaster – they have also lost one of their most important players in Paul Green – and, in financial terms, how are they going to cope with the step up?
"If they are trying to be realistic off the pitch, they will have to be realistic on the pitch too. It will be a case of looking at the league and saying 'How many wins or draws do we need for survival?'
"It may also be a question of asking how important is winning in style? Sometimes you have to be prepared to compromise and play survival football. As in life, you cannot always have it both ways.
"If survival is the objective, you have to take less risks. Getting these priorities clear will be important. If they survive, that is a success."
Although Barnsley sent shockwaves through English football last season by beating Liverpool and Chelsea on the way to the semi-finals of the
FA Cup, Wilkinson is not yet convinced that the club are capable of challenging for promotion to the Premier League.
"Reaching the semi-finals last season was a fantastic achievement, but it was the cream on the cake. They finished sixth bottom in the table and, if you had offered them that at the start of the season, I think they would have taken it," he says.
"I am sure the Barnsley board will now want them to do better – but I expect more of the same.
"There are six to eight clubs in the Championship who have aspirations to be in the Premier League long-term and who have raised the bar financially. If Simon Davey is capable of steering a club like Barnsley – with its wage bill and financial limitations – to mid- or lower table, you would still have to say that he has got something as a manager."
At 62, Huddersfield's Stan Ternent is only two years younger than Wilkinson, but is far from over the hill.
The appointment of the former Burnley manager may have raised eyebrows in some quarters, but Wilkinson is adamant that the Town board have got it right and will be in the League One promotion race during their centenary season.
"Personally, I don't think experience of management in this country gets the credit it deserves. It's very hard to manage a football club and keep your wits about you. Some people think Stan is too old, but football is about winning matches and Stan recognises that. I think Huddersfield will be more of a promotion contender than they have been for a long time," says Wilkinson.
He thinks the 'toughest job' in Yorkshire football now rests in the hands of Mark Robins, the manager of League Two side Rotherham.
The former Manchester United striker, 38, has been grappling with one financial crisis after another and the club have recently quit Millmoor and moved to a temporary home at the Don Valley Stadium.
"We are back to the problems of instability and the nightmare of dealing with a CVA," reflects Wilkinson. "Mark probably has the toughest job in Yorkshire this season. Every penny has to be accounted for and it is difficult to maintain morale when you feel like you are forever banging your head against a wall.
"The atmosphere at Don Valley will make it an away game for both sides. If Rotherham finish anywhere near mid-table it will be an unbelievable achievement."
A Premier League side just seven years ago, Bradford begin their second consecutive campaign in League Two under the guidance of former player Stuart McCall.
Wilkinson says: "It is not sensible to talk about Bradford returning to the Premier League, but they do have the look of League Two promotion contenders this season. As with other clubs, boardrooms have a lot to answer for when it comes to a club's status.
"Stuart will have learned a lot from his first season in management. It was a tough 12 months, but he will have sorted things out and feel more comfortable with the situation."
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Saturday 26 May 2012
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