Bernard Ginns: There's no straightforward answer to nature of the recovery

I asked a leading UK economist which sectors he thought would lead the recovery. Here is his non-attributable answer.

"Think back to the mid-1980s when we had very high levels of unemployment at three million. Ten years later, that figure would be down to one million.

"If you had asked people back then what jobs those people will have gone into I'm sure that they would have had a very hard job saying it's this sector or that sector.

"That's the problem we're stuck with now. You look at how much change does go on in terms of technology and things.

"It's a long time since I came to Leeds, but I look around the city centre now and see developments along the waterfront and I'm sure 20 years ago people thought these areas wouldn't be redeveloped and would stay like they were.

"It's very difficult to say. What it requires is people with imagination, ideas and a bit of get up and go to make things happen in a vast range of sectors."

So even top economists don't know precisely which sectors will provide the jobs of the future. But, as history tells us, growth will come, as sure as night follows day.

In the meantime, I thought I would share some views from the money managers of Yorkshire and what they are advising their clients about the short-term future over the year ahead.

"Batten down the hatches," said Jono Baker, investment manager at the Leeds office of Charles Stanley stockbrokers. "We are not sure about a double-dip recession. To have a double dip you have to have some growth."

According to Mr Baker, the name of the game is not return on capital, it is capital return.

"Let's preserve what you've got for now," he said.

He is concerned about a bubble in the corporate bond market and is focusing instead on non-sterling AAA rated sovereign debt of countries like Canada and Australia, the possibility of using precious metals as insurance against default and piling into indexed linked gilts to protect against the inevitable inflation, brought on by quantitative easing and increasing food and fuel costs.

The Leeds office of Charles Stanley opened two years ago and now manages 65m on behalf of its clients.

It's the topic of the moment – how the Government spending cuts will affect you and your business.

New research from RSM Tenon, the accountancy firm, claims that more than a third of entrepreneurs expect the impending fiscal consolidation to negatively affect their businesses' performance.

Conversely, the accountancy firm said some business owners hope to benefit from the spending cuts and believe that a shrinking state could lead to an increase in outsourcing activities.

Neil Sevitt, Yorkshire and Humber director at RSM Tenon, said: "While some businesses dealing directly with Government will inevitably be hit by the cutbacks, there are some clear opportunities for entrepreneurs to take advantage and fill the gaps resulting from reductions in Government resources.

"Businesses that take the initiative and adapt their current practices to meet these public sector demands could therefore find themselves in a strong position in a year's time."

The research – a poll of 392 people – found that just 16 per cent expect to see an improvement in their businesses' financial performance.

I'd like to see more businesses adopt this kind of optimistic attitude. Throughout the recession, the best-performing companies have been those led by optimistic and positive individuals.

They have changed what they do and how they do it and are benefiting from the prevailing conditions.

There are many examples around Yorkshire, but I'd like to see many more.

Finally, I would like to wish all those companies in this year's Yorkshire Post Excellence in Business Awards the very best of luck for Thursday evening.

The awards ceremony is the most prestigious in Yorkshire's annual business calendar, attracting the top business talent from this most enterprising of regions.

I look forward to reporting the results in a special supplement to be published next Tuesday.