Brexit looks set to harvest a host of problems for farmers

The news that the jobless rate has fallen to its lowest level since 2005 will be welcomed by businesses.

However, before we get too complacent, it should be noted that these figures were for the three months to May, three weeks before the referendum.

As such these rose-tinted numbers give a snapshot of the pre-Brexit labour market​ so the reassuringly upbeat data gives​ a historical, rather than an accurate view.

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​The truth is that t​he surprise result of the Brexit referendum is likely to have a dramatic impact which is yet to be reflected by the official statistics. With no ​sign of Article 50 being triggered any time soon​, many employers ​will hold off on making hiring decisions.

Mariano Mamertino, economist at the global job site, Indeed,​ said: “These are early days, and the full impact of the political and economic uncertainty has yet to filter through to employer confidence. Of more immediate concern is the indication that increasing numbers of British job seekers have begun looking for work beyond our shores. In the hours and days following the Brexit vote, the share of Britons searching on Indeed for work overseas doubled.

“While the levels of outbound job searching have since eased, the prospect of a flight of talented, high-skilled workers poses a major economic risk as the country confronts the heightened economic challenges ahead.”

At the same time, farmers are increasingly worried about who will pick their crops if immigration is curbed. The National Farmers’ Union (NFU) has warned that Brexit could lead to a labour shortage which sees fruit and vegetable crops go unharvested and businesses close down.

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It said the referendum has created a huge amount of uncertainty about whether the horticultural sector will have access to non-UK workers. It added that these workers are crucial in picking, grading and packing crops which provide customers with affordable British produce.

Analysts at IHS Markit said in a note: “The vote will cause major economic and political uncertainty and will weigh down on business and household confidence and behaviour, thus dampening corporate investment, employment, and consumer spending.”

One month on from the Brexit vote, we are still no clearer as to what will happen.

No-one is in any rush to trigger Article 50 and Tory politicians may say we can have free market access and clamp down on immigration, but the EU would see this as a dangerous precedent.

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The last thing it wants to do is allow the UK to cherry pick the parts of the EU it likes and spit out the bits it doesn’t. Any leniency towards the UK would stoke hopes in other EU countries that they can also leave but keep the best parts.

The biggest Brexit worry we face is that the EU will decide to make a stand on Brexit and swallow the hit that will come if there is no free trade with Britain. It will hurt the economies of the remaining 27 members, but they could decide to take that hit in order to prevent the break-up of the EU.

In the meantime we should learn to accept that the £24bn takeover of ARM Holdings, Britain’s most successful technology company, by Japan’s SoftBank, will be the first of many such foreign takeovers.

ARM says the deal will double its UK workforce, but how many jobs that would have been secured for the UK will go abroad? Also, it will be interesting to see if SoftBank keeps its promises on UK jobs.

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A top German central banker believes a significant slice of Britain’s banking industry should be shifted to Frankfurt. Andreas Dombret said euro clearing services cannot continue to take place in London, pinpointing Germany’s financial capital as a “more appropriate alternative”.

While all this goes on around us, we are more than two years away from splitting from the EU. Who knows what will happen in that time, but one thing is for sure – these jobless figures are unlikely to remain so rosy.

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