Companies can boost UK economy by exporting to booming countries

YORKSHIRE'S manufacturers can boost the UK economy by exporting to booming countries like Brazil, according to one of the world's leading economists.

But Jim O'Neill, the head of global economic research for US investment bank Goldman Sachs, also warned about the dangers of implementing large cuts in public spending when the UK economy was in the early stages of recovery.

He made his comments in an exclusive interview with the Yorkshire Post before addressing an audience of business leaders at the Leeds office of law firm Cobbetts.

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Manchester-born Mr O'Neill is a Sheffield University economics graduate who has spent most of his 27-year career analysing the world's foreign exchange markets. He's an expert on the emergence of Brazil, Russia, India and China, which are known as the BRIC nations.

He was visiting Leeds to deliver a speech with the title "Welcome to a new global economy?".

He said: "I got off a plane yesterday after being in Brazil for nine days; the week before that I was in China. A week and a half before that, I was in Russia. I'm even more obsessed with the BRIC countries than I normally am.

"We're living in a rapidly changing world. You go to these countries and you don't hear the words 'credit crisis' mentioned. China, Brazil and India are having an absolute boom. Anybody from the north of England who is in the export business and is not benefiting from it, particularly with the weak pound, has got the wrong product line."

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He believes the strength of export markets could help the UK economy to grow.

He also called for a sense of perspective about the Greek economic crisis. Greece is under pressure to implement large spending cuts as it tries to reduce its 259bn debt.

Mr O'Neill said: "When I travel around the world and visit our clients (Greece) is the number one question I'm getting everywhere.

"It's only 2.5 per cent of the euro area. Greece isn't going to pull the world down.

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"With the pound being weaker, maybe it's an opportunity for

a few people with cash in England to go and buy that second home they've always wanted, because I'm guessing Greece is a bit more affordable than it used to be.

"That being said, I think Greece is problematic. It's a real test case for representing the weakness of the Club Med countries, and trying to get the long term-future of EMU (European Monetary Union) on a stronger footing.

"In the background, the Germans are pushing to use Greece as a test case for a change in the way EMU is governed in terms of fiscal policy. It's a story that's going to run. We are not at the end game."

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He said the Bank of England "is telling us pretty loud and clear they are keeping rates low for a long time".

Mr O'Neill was concerned about the damaging impact of proposed cuts in public spending after the next election, which many commentators regard as inevitable.

"I don't think they are very wise,'' he said. "All these popular comparisons (are being made) with the Geoffrey Howe (the former Conservative Chancellor) Budget of the early 1980s when it was right to have a tough fiscal policy. I don't think they are right. We are just stabilising. We're coming out of recession.

"We should be careful about how quickly we put the clamps on. If the markets were to force it on us, like Greece, it would be a different story.

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"What's interesting about all this – despite how much we all worry about it and how much we all complain about it – is that the markets seem pretty relaxed. We can afford to take our time in cutting spending."

Mr O'Neill also suggested that Britain may have emerged from recession earlier than the official figures indicate.

He added: "In 2010, we are going to have growth of between 1 per cent and 2 per cent.

"It's probably the case that the past two to three quarters have underestimated the recovery that's already started."