Economists say end of EU slump within sight

Monday’s poll of more than 40 economists, followed a meeting of the Group of 20 finance ministers and central bankers on Saturday, who pledged to put growth before austerity to revive the global economy.

The southern European economies of the euro zone have borne the brunt of austerity, which has brought a far higher economic and human cost than many of its proponents envisaged in 2010.

Economists expect the jobless rate in Spain and Greece will remain above 27 per cent, even going into 2015. The euro zone unemployment rate hit 12.2 percent in May, leaving more than 19.3 million people out of work.

“The endless fiscal austerity simply hasn’t worked and unemployment – particularly youth unemployment - remains a serious problem for the euro zone,” said Alan McQuaid, economist at Merrion Stockbrokers in Dublin.

“In the absence of pro-growth measures the jobless rates in ‘peripheral’ countries will remain elevated for some time.”

A separate Reuters poll last week named youth unemployment the top threat to the future of the euro zone economy. At least the latest survey showed Portugal and Spain should manage a return to feeble growth next year, while Greece might escape a six-year depression in 2014, even if outright growth looks a long way off.

Overall, the economic outlook was little changed from April.