Invesco’s ‘demolition job’ of logic behind the BAE/EADS deal

In a scathing and lengthy statement, Invesco Perpetual said the deal could also have a negative impact on the UK firm’s position in the United States, where it has unique access as a foreign firm to sensitive defence work.

“Invesco believes BAE is a strong business with distinctive positions in the global defence market, especially in the US and UK, and good stand-alone prospects,” it said, adding that it had, on and off, owned shares in BAE for over 20 years.

“We look forward to discussions with the board of BAE and other BAE shareholders in the coming days.”

The statement, which analysts described as a comprehensive demolition of the strategic logic behind the deal, comes two days ahead of a stock market-imposed deadline for the two companies to set out a more detailed blueprint for the merger.

It also follows the rising tensions that spilled out into the public last week, sparked by France, Britain and Germany jockeying over the role the state would take in what would be the world’s largest aerospace and arms group.

Defence Secretary Philip Hammond warned that Britain would block the deal if key ‘red line’ priorities were not met, including an ability to cap the influence the French and German governments would have on the new company.

“They own 13.3 per cent and you need 25 per cent to block it,” Espirito Santo analyst Edward Stacey said.

“This does not kill the deal – and it’s not to say they could not change their minds if the merits are spelled out to them – but it’s a blow.”

Shares in BAE were down 0.55 per cent, closing at 326.30p, a fall of 1.80p

Shares in the European group EADS were down 0.87 per cent, closing at 26.25 euros, a fall of 0.23 euros.

Setting out its objections under eight categories, Invesco said the structure of the deal would hamper synergies while the ratio did not reflect BAE’s superior cash generation.

It also felt the level of state shareholding in the combined group would heavily impair its commercial prospects.

BAE employs 900 people at Brough and operates a training academy at Doncaster airport.

The backbench Tory MP David Davis has warned that the merger could lead to job losses.

“This raises real questions of both short and long-term threats to British jobs,” said the MP for Haltemprice and Howden.

“Even if EADS were willing to give undertakings as to preserving these jobs, we know from past experience of such mergers these never last in the long run.”