Lockdown needed for now but we need exit strategy details soon - Mark Casci

The measure was strictly imposed to stop the spread of the Black Death plague which is thought to have killed up to 30 per cent of the population of Europe.

The word itself means ‘40 days’ and has since passed into popular lexicon to refer to the process of isolating people in order to prevent the spread of disease.

In the UK, we are now past 21 days of our own quarantine process as we battle a disease which has presented a threat to life not seen since the Spanish Flu pandemic following the First World War.

We almost certainly will remain on lockdown beyond the 40-day period laid out by the Medieval Venetians. Indeed, we currently have no end in sight regarding how long this will all go on.

Keeping social distancing is currently the only means of ensuring our outstanding National Health Service does not become overwhelmed.

We have already surpassed the grim tally of 10,000 deaths with leading health experts predicting Britain may well suffer the highest death toll of any European nation. The logic behind the lockdown is solid. Many will argue that it should have been imposed sooner and in all probability history will determine them to be correct.

However, and I am clearly not making any profound assessment here, this phase of our history cannot continue for long.

All modelling points towards the Covid-19 pandemic causing the UK to suffer its deepest and most severe economic recession since the 1930s.

The Centre for Economics and Business Research is predicting that the UK economy between March and June will suffer a contraction of 15 per cent.

For context, the sharpest fall on record came in the final quarter of 2008, the height of the financial crisis and even then the figure was 2.2 just per cent.

Even if there is a sharp uptick in activity as the economy gets up and running again the damage will still be long lasting. Business investment will plummet, as will consumer spending. With inflation now likely to become an issue for the first time in a generation, interest rates will have to rise from their current rock bottom rates.

Unemployment will rise to levels not seen for many years.

I do not mean for this column to cause alarm.

The Government has means at its disposal to mitigate the damage. The current occupant of Number 11, Rishi Sunak, has already shown himself to arguably be the boldest Chancellor of the Exchequer since Gordon Brown.

Measures such as a temporary cut of VAT and incentives for business investment are at his disposal.

Plus let us not forget what a resourceful, resilient and innovative nation we are. A report in this weekend’s edition of The Yorkshire Post from my colleague Lizzie Murphy demonstrated how the region’s manufacturing sector was responding to the Covid-19 crisis on a scale not seen since the Second World War. I have no doubt the rest of the region’s and nation’s business sectors will respond in a similar fashion.

However, to begin planning for this fresh chapter in our economic history, all businesses need reassurance that an end to the current situation is on the horizon.

This week will almost certainly see the lockdown period extended beyond the initial three weeks.

Without question this is the right move. There are early signs that the rate of infections and hospitalisations are beginning to steady as a result of the lockdown. Keeping the NHS protected is the nation’s top priority at this point in time.

However, we need to see evidence of an exit strategy presented very soon. The Government’s ambitious plan for 100,000 tests a day by the end of the month cannot come soon enough.

With millions of workers set to start receiving reduced pay packets in the next few days, all of us need the comfort that a plan is in place to end this quarantine as close to 40 days as is possible.