Teachers ‘too optimistic’ on A-level grades

Just 48 per cent of the grades forecast by teachers last year were accurate, according to statistics published by OCR, one of England’s biggest exam boards.

More than nine in 10 (92 per cent) of the grades forecast for summer 2012 were correct within one grade.

But more than 15,000 were more than one grade out, the figures show.

Teachers are more likely to be optimistic about a student’s chances than pessimistic, with more than a third (39 per cent) of grades over-predicted and 13 per cent under-predicted.

They were better at forecasting higher grades, with 64 per cent of A* grades, 63 per cent of As and 52 per cent of Bs accurately forecast, compared with 47 per cent of Cs, 32 per cent of Ds and 27 per cent of Es.

Private and grammar schools were the most accurate at predicting results, while further education colleges were the most likely to be incorrect. The data show accuracy in grade predictions has declined since 2011, when 55 per cent were correct.