NHS ‘living on borrowed time’ warns peer who led reforms

Norman Warner said the health service’s business model “is bust” and it should no longer be exempt from the austerity measures that have hit most government departments.

Without urgent action there will be a “financial train crash” after the 2015 general election, the peer suggested.

Lord Warner, who was in charge of health service reform in the last government, also admitted that Labour failed to secure the improvements in the NHS that it should have for the amount of extra cash it pumped in.

At a Health and Care Infrastructure Research and Innovation Centre forum on NHS innovation in central London yesterday, he said: “My starting point is that the NHS is living on borrowed time. Its business model is bust.

“It is like IBM and ICL several decades ago – pre-occupied with mainframes while the world was moving to PCs.

“It wasted the Labour years of plenty and as a government we didn’t ask enough of the NHS for the extra taxpayers’ money we pumped in.

“Now we have a political class that knows we cannot go on like this but is reluctant to engage with the public on what needs to be done.”

NHS funding has continued to be protected while other departments have suffered punishing cuts.

The next spending round is currently being finalised and will be published next month. Lord Warner added: “The UK’s deficit reduction timetable has been extended to 2017 and is likely to be extended further.

“Given the cuts already made in other public expenditure – especially local government – the NHS cannot sensibly be ring-fenced in future public expenditure rounds including the current one.”

The peer also called for acute services to be consolidated on fewer sites and billions of pounds in funding to be transferred to social care.

He said: “There is an urgent need for the kind of leadership that can force a consolidation of 24/7 acute services on fewer specialist sites; redeployment of resources – staff and money – to better community-based services integrated with social care; and rebuilding the funding of social care at the expense of the NHS.”

Lord Warner, who is a member of the Dilnot Commission on Funding of Care and Support, said the coalition’s local initiatives were not enough to bring about the change needed.

“They can make a contribution but it must be very doubtful whether they can drive the necessary consolidation of specialist services on fewer sites and the extraction of resources from hospitals to fund better integrated community services without central political and professional leadership. I cannot see this leadership emerging before the 2015 election.

“However, unless there is urgent action, I can see a financial train crash after the 2015 election.

“Afterwards I fear it will be panic stations as the money runs out, the Treasury takes charge and radical NHS funding changes are considered.”

Health Minister Dan Poulter said: “We are passionate about the NHS and want to safeguard its legacy. That’s why we have protected its budget so that it receives real-terms funding increases.

“But the health service cannot stand still in the face of an ageing population with changing health needs.

“In April, we handed power 
to local doctors and nurses who best know what their patients need.

“They now have the power, freedom and budget to decide what care and services are best for their local communities and how taxpayers’ money is spent.

“Our plan is to make sure that NHS and social care services join up effectively so that people are cared for when they leave hospital, and people with long-term conditions are supported to prevent further emergency admissions.”

Mr Poulter added: “By making sure people are properly supported and by moving away from 
crisis care, we are creating a system that delivers high quality, compassionate care for patients that is fit and sustainable for the future.”