Analysis: Theresa May looks more likely to be the victim of a 'grey suits coup' after Brexit than a vote of no confidence now

Theresa May could pay the ultimate price for doing what she had to do - pick a side on Brexit.
Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson (left) and Brexit Secretary David Davis (right) have quit the Cabinet in protest at Theresa May's plans for a "common rulebook" with the EU on goods.Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson (left) and Brexit Secretary David Davis (right) have quit the Cabinet in protest at Theresa May's plans for a "common rulebook" with the EU on goods.
Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson (left) and Brexit Secretary David Davis (right) have quit the Cabinet in protest at Theresa May's plans for a "common rulebook" with the EU on goods.

But Eurosceptics will be thinking twice about triggering a leadership contest, as ousting the Prime Minister would risk throwing the country into chaos.

If anyone challenges the Brexiteers’ anointed candidate - possibly Boris Johnson - the contest would run for three months over the key Brexit negotiating period to resolve almost all the big issues before departure from the EU in March next year.

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Calls for a general election from Jeremy Corbyn and other opposition figures would also be extremely difficult to ignore.

Meanwhile, Britain would be heading the exit door without any idea of how it will trade with its key EU partners.

The transition period until 2021, secured by Mrs May, buys time for Leavers.

But if the two-year Article 50 withdrawal process created a pressure cooker which favoured Brussels negotiators - remember “the clock is ticking” - a Brexiteer PM running a vassal “transition state”, still to negotiate almost everything on trade, would give the EU almost total control.

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The only conclusion is that if Leavers oust Mrs May and install one of their own as Prime Minister after a contest the likelihood of a “no deal” Brexit would increase.

But while Eurosceptics apoplectic at Mrs May’s shift towards “soft” Brexit are likely to have the 48 MPs required to trigger a vote of no confidence, many believe this most resilient of PMs will survive anyway.

It is still true to say the bulk of Tory MPs want a “sensible” Brexit, and Mrs May has clearly calculated that her more business-friendly plan will see her through, despite conceding ground on British sovereignty.

But if anyone follows the Foreign Secretary and Brexit Secretary David Davis out of the Cabinet door, even moderate Tories may start wondering.However, “men in grey suits” coup after Britain’s exit from the EU, with a replacement installed after a coronation, appears far more likely given the risks.