Yorkshire housing market predictions 2018

What will happen to the Yorkshire housing market in 2018? We ask the experts for their predictions, points of view and possible hotspots. Sharon Dale reports.
What will happen to house prices this year? Picture: PAWhat will happen to house prices this year? Picture: PA
What will happen to house prices this year? Picture: PA

Andrew Beadnall, founder of Beadnall Copley estate agency.

“In the closing weeks of 2017 there was a sizeable fall in the number of new instructions compared with previous years. It is this continued scarcity of stock, coupled with buyer demand, which has held up house prices this past year.

“In the coming months of this year I believe it will be more of the same, as many of those wishing to move refuse to offer their homes for sale unless they first see something to entice them. It is a classic Catch 22 situation. However, when the more individual and sought-after properties do come to market, we get many viewings and, in some cases, a sale is achieved above the asking price.

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“The so-called “Golden Triangle” in which I operate remains highly popular with a cross-section of purchasers, due to quality of schooling, rail and road accessibility and picturesque self-contained villages and towns, such as Boston Spa, Ripon and Harrogate, which appeal to both families and downsizers alike.

“I think that 2018 will see many changes in the lettings market due to the impending ban on tenant fees, expected by the latter end of this year. In Scotland we have already seen the effects of the ban with rents increasing by 4.2 per cent and supply becoming ever more scarce.”

*Mark Manning, managing director of Manning Stainton estate agents.

“Demand across the lower and middle markets remains healthy but there is a little price resistance starting to be felt in various pockets of the region.

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“We have done some research and are pleased to see a six per cent increase in the number of first-time buyers in 2017. What’s even more impressive is that this number is 37 per cent higher than in 2013, which goes some way to proving that the government’s intervention with Help-to-Buy schemes is bearing fruit.

“The top end of the market has shown promise this year but I feel that it will remain unpredictable due to Brexit and all the uncertainty surrounding it.

“As we look ahead into 2018, housing supply remains tight and mortgage rates remain low with the added incentive of Help to Buy and the newly-introduced stamp duty changes for first-time buyers.

“It is our view that a small growth in prices over the coming year is to be expected with the most activity in first-time buyer and second-time buyer properties. Hotspots will include Pudsey and Crossgates, which have always been popular with this demographic. The east side of Leeds is up and coming. There is a lot of investment going into this location.”

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*Andrew Wells, managing partner at Allsop property consultancy and auction specialist, Leeds.

“I think it is inevitable that the housing market will slow in Yorkshire and Humberside in 2018 but it will fare better than many other parts of the UK.

“In general, price affordability to earnings ratios are much more viable in our region, and this will mean that we will not see price falls. However, a lack of confidence in the economy will hamper transaction levels and I see many people staying put. The exception may be York where buyers still compete for good stock and the city remains very popular.

“The government’s help for first-time buyers through the recent stamp duty change and Help to Buy will have a mixed effect.

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“The former doesn’t help much in the north of England but Help to Buy remains a significant benefit with as much as 80 per cent of all sales on new developments being assisted by this initiative.

“Housebuilders are delighted that the government has not withdrawn the scheme.

“For renters there will still be a very good level of choice, especially in centres such as Leeds and Sheffield. The emergence of new schemes specifically designed for rent – Build to Rent – will probably add to choice more in 2019 than in 2018, but there is plenty of activity to look forward to. With inflation at relatively high levels, rents will probably continue to rise in the first half of the year.”

*Edward Hartshorne, Blenkin & Co. estate agency, York.

“In 2018 we will see more buyers selling up in London and the Home Counties and acquiring top-quality houses in and around York. The railway line is the absolute key. At the moment, we have two young London families who are specifically seeking period houses in Malton.

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“As Brexit impacts the financial services industry, families are increasingly cashing in on the London boom and moving to North Yorkshire – and why not? The county has some of the most beautiful countryside around and access to major commercial centres like York, Leeds and Manchester.

“Almost since the day Brexit happened, business has mushroomed at Blenkin & Co. The lack of supply and huge demand for good quality houses means that the market is buoyant at the upper end.

“Homeowners with an eye on a sale in 2018 are advised to keep one step ahead and launch early in the year. Serious buyers are scanning the market in earnest and if your intention is to sell then our advice is to be visible and available.

“Assuming the public rallies around the Brexit deal, our best guess is that prices will hold firm in 2018, buoyed by a shortage of stock. As ever, the cake remains the same size, or more likely shrinks a little, and some well-known estate agents will surely go to the wall in 2018.”

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*Tim Waring, director at Dacre, Son and Hartley estate agents.

“Following a steady year in 2017, we expect to see modest, single figure price growth in the first half of 2018, which will be driven in part by a continued lack of supply.

“With buyer demand arguably stronger across Yorkshire’s prime areas spanning Leeds, Ilkley, Harrogate and Wetherby, it’s an exciting time for anyone thinking about selling.

“Although external influences such as Brexit continue to make headlines, this shouldn’t determine whether people decide to move home or not, especially because mortgage finance is still economically sensible.

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“This is also good news for first-time buyers, particularly when combined with initiatives such as Help to Buy and the recent stamp duty relief.

“Looking further ahead, the property industry must continue to embrace technological advancements. There are a number of online-only estate agents but it is our belief that the majority of buyers and sellers recognise the benefits of using a full service estate agent, with a high-street presence and strong local knowledge, as well as a comprehensive online reach. As a result, we’ll be expanding our office network further in 2018 with a new office in Elland and continuing with our ongoing investment in technology.”

*Jonathan Morgan, managing director of Morgans City Living, Leeds.

“The supply of new apartments in Leeds city centre has been decimated over the last 10 years. Demand has never faltered and our significant rentals portfolio is more than 99.5 per cent occupied. With supply running at around 10 per cent of what it was in the previous decade, it doesn’t take much analysis to work out that we are in a period of dramatic under-supply and over-demand.

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“Whilst this has not been a strong enough dynamic to trigger an upturn, we are on the verge of a period of significant activity, fuelled partly by the notion that Leeds is currently undervalued and is well set for investment growth, the advent of fund-backed PRS schemes and, perhaps most significantly, a growing sense that Manchester is ‘done’ in this cycle, and that Leeds is the place for investors and funds to be.

“With willing renters and buyers and an economy which, according to Cambridge Economics, is showing all the signs of a strong future, the only element missing is fresh supply. We firmly believe that 2018 will see more residential starts in the city centre than we have seen for a decade.

“With fresh residential supply in the city centre, plenty of quality jobs available and a booming leisure, retail and cultural scene, Leeds is well placed to move further towards its ambition of becoming one of the UK’s great cities.”

*Ben Pridden, head of residential sales at Savills York.

“We believe that people are beginning to build Brexit into their lives and saw a good level of sales and enquiries in 2017, which bodes well for 2018.

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“Our research analysts have taken the same view and have built it into their five-year forecasts, which show small incremental increases in property prices across Yorkshire over the next five years. Yorkshire is set to grow at more than twice the rate of London over the next five years with a predicted increase of 17.6 per cent, compared to 7.1 per cent in the capital.

“We expect that values in York may level off having seen so much growth over recent years, but we will continue to see marked growth in the surrounding countryside and more rural areas, narrowing the gap between town and country.

“It’s good to see East Yorkshire coming back with annual growth of 4.4 per cent to August 2017, and I believe that could well be the market to watch in 2018.”#

*Tony Wright, head of residential agency at Carter Jonas, Harrogate.

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“In 2017, Yorkshire showed overall annual house price growth but we have undoubtedly been hit by declining transaction volumes due to the economic and political turmoil following Brexit and the snap General Election. This uncertainty has had an inevitable impact on buyer and vendor mentality.

“Having said that, the residential sales market in the Harrogate, Leeds and York areas performed well in 2017 and all of our offices have experienced good levels of activity across all price brackets

“A particular feature of the current market place is the shortage of new stock, which has resulted in pent-up demand, with motivated purchasers waiting to pounce on the right opportunity. The demand for city/town living is particularly evident with buyers seeking the convenience of shops, restaurants and other amenities on their doorstep.

“Activity at the higher end of the market and in outlying villages has not been quite as buoyant but there is still a healthy demand for individual and sensibly priced properties.

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“In terms of the outlook for 2018, we are confident that the market will remain active. Interest rates remain low and there is an underlying confidence fuelled by a good number of buyers. The lack of supply will have an impact and the early part of 2018 will be a good time to consider selling.”

*Glynis Frew, CEO, Hunters Property Plc.

“The market will continue to face its challenges as it always has done, yet I have no doubt it will come out stronger. Recent stamp duty changes and a pledge to build 300,000 homes a year has signalled this government’s determination to tackle the challenges.

“Doom and gloomers tell us that the abolition of first-time buyer stamp duty will have an overall adverse effect on prices, yet I say that we must never stand in the way of ambitious home buyers who simply want a stake in the market. It is this type of activity from the decision-makers that will see transaction levels rise and ensure the market stays resilient, with prices rising at a steady pace.

“Predictions for 2018 are generally ranging from anything between one and three per cent on average, with the lower and middle rungs expected to perform better than others.

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“The rental market will go from strength to strength with continued institutional investment. We finally seem to be moving away from our obsession with home ownership, understanding that many consumers now prefer to rent.

“We can expect city centres like York, Leeds and Hull to be at the heart of the growth, which will benefit landlords and renters. On the sales side, traditional market towns and villages like Harrogate, Otley, Skipton and the wider Dales will always be in high demand.

“Industry regulation will need to evolve and this is particularly the case in lettings, where agents will need to ensure that staff are trained to the highest standards, much like the Hunters Training Academy. Recent government rhetoric has signalled that it is fully on board.”

*Richard Welpton, Quick and Clarke estate agents.

“We will see little change in the market during 2018 with continued house price rises and record low housing stock, provided that interest rates are not unexpectedly increased thus affecting mortgages.

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“First-time buyer properties are forecast to increase by three per cent negating the positive effect the Chancellor promised by removing stamp duty.

“In East Yorkshire, Beverley will continue to perform better in terms of house price rises and speed of sale as demand remains very strong.

“The top end of the market is moving fairly well due to lack of supply rather than an increase in the number of buyers.

“There is a fair amount of caution and I feel that the market is rather delicate. Any further difficulties around Brexit and other key economic indicators will have a negative effect and further reduce stock.”

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*Justin Dugdale, director, Yorkshire’s Finest estate agency.

“Last year saw a bullish property market in Yorkshire despite the concerns over our divorce from mainland Europe. Spring was somewhat disappointing in 2017 but strengthened into summer and autumn with September being our best sales month since we began trading some 12 years ago.

“There is more confidence than there was 12 months ago and this, coupled with the recent Budget announcement on stamp duty for first-time buyers, means I expect the property market to strengthen further into 2018. I forecast that prices in the region will rise by four to five per cent.”

*Nicola Spencer, Spencers estate agency, Sheffield.

“No-one dare say the words ‘strong and stable’ anymore in the same sentence but, if we were to, it would pretty much describe the property market in Sheffield.

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“The end of 2017 saw strong interest and a high level of property instructions. The very top end of the market is still the slowest to move but with realistic expectations there are no reasons why it isn’t a good time to sell or buy.

“The city centre is the one to watch in Sheffield and our advice is to buy wisely. There are many developments shooting up all aiming at similar markets so quality and position have to go hand-in-hand to ensure a decent long-term investment.”