County in front line of major ethnic changes

But ethnic diversity, it appears, is heading the way of Britain's largest county, as the children and the grandchildren of immigrants who first settled in major cities such as Leeds and Bradford become increasingly affluent and head towards the countryside commuter belt.

There they will join the families of migrant workers who began to arrive from abroad – mostly from areas within the European Union – over the past decade to work in rural parts of the UK.

The change for North Yorkshire, which in 2001 was nearly 97 per cent white-British, will be marked and it is clear there will be challenges ahead, particularly for the local authorities whose job it will be to plan services for these changing populations and ensure communities do not fragment.

The councils likely to be most affected by the changes, however, are reluctant to talk about the issue – in public at least.

Officers at North Yorkshire County Council refused interview requests. A spokeswoman said: "This research poses an interesting proposition, and if it turns out to be an accurate projection in the future we would be able to respond at that time, should any issues arise that we need to address."

In Kirklees, where the population is predicted to be around one-third ethnic minority by 2051, the council turned down repeated requests to discuss the forecasts.

"We are aware of these demographic trends. The research maybe useful to help inform future service planning," a statement said.

But at Bradford City Hall the city council's strategic director of adult and community services, Moira Wilson, said the predictions for the city – forecast to be less than half white-British by 2051 – were simply an extension of very long-term trends.

"We are already a diverse, multi-cultural population, and we have been that way for the last couple of hundred years," she said.

"Since the industrial revolution, people have been coming to Bradford from different countries to work. First it was Irish, Welsh, Belgian immigrants, more recently people have come from southern Asian countries –so we've got this history of people coming into the district."

One of the benefits, Ms Wilson said, would be economic. On Saturday, the Yorkshire Post revealed that Yorkshire's population was growing faster than almost any other part of the country, fuelled in part by the increasing longevity of its elderly people.

The number of pensioners in the region is expected to rise 10 per cent over the next decade, significantly changing the proportion of working-age to non-working age people, and raising fears of a future labour shortage in some areas. Ms Wilson said Bradford's growing ethnic community should prevent such a situation occurring in her city.

"One of the positives about our situation is that here we've got this young, fast-growing population," she said. "Our older people are going to need care and support in the future, and in Bradford we will have the people to do these sorts of roles. So this is a challenge, but it's also an opportunity."

Nasr Emam, who has lived in the county for 23 years and works as a community cohesion officer, also said the change would be a positive one for North Yorkshire.

"I work with the local people here in Scarborough, and they appreciate the contribution of the ethnic minorities people that live here," he said. "It's so important to mix with people from different cultures. It will make North Yorkshire much stronger."

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