Fall in prison numbers puts huge building plans in doubt

The prison population in England and Wales is projected to be lower than previously expected by 2015, Government figures have shown.

Projections suggest it will rise each year until it reaches 88,700 in 2014, before dropping to 88,600 in 2015 and 88,500 in 2016, the Ministry of Justice said.

But these figures assume no change in sentencing policy and the 2016 population could be as low as 83,100 if there is a reduction in sentences, or lower still if Justice Secretary Kenneth Clarke's proposed sentencing reforms reduce jail terms.

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Campaign groups said the figures showed the Government was wasting billions on its prison-building programme.

Mr Clarke plans to reform sentencing and penalties, saying the that there should be greater emphasis on rehabilitation and community sentences.

Figures released by the Ministry of Justice, project the prison population will reach 86,100 by the end of June 2011, but will then fall to 85,200 in 2014, 84,200 in 2015 and 83,100 in 2016.

If there is no change in sentencing policy, the prison population will reach 88,600 by 2015.

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Last year's equivalent figures originally projected the prison population would rise to 88,700 by 2015, but they did not account for the end of the early-release scheme in March this year, which increased the prison population by 1,200.

The report also included projections for a so-called "increased sentencing scenario", which show the prison population would be expected to rise to 88,000 by the end of June 2011, and then increase every year to 92,000 in 2014, 92,800 in 2015 and 93,600 in 2016.

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