Harrogate & Knaresborough: Rise of Liberal Democrats could make two key target seats tough for Tories

David Cameron has made the new seat of York Outer his fourth target in the region, with the affluent constituency of Harrogate and Knaresborough also crucial to his quest for power.

But the leadership debates have turned the party's pre-election plans upside down as the performances of Nick Clegg rocketed his party to the top of many polls.

Senior Tories have now admitted that their task to win the two North Yorkshire seats will be considerably tougher.

Much of Clegg's appeal has been that he claims to represent a "new politics" or even an anti-politics but in Harrogate, where the party ran the local council until 2003, the Tories are seeking to use that history against it as they attempt to overturn a notional majority of nearly 8,000.

In York the battle is much closer with one of the lowest notional majorities in the country of just 203.

Recent history at a local level has shown a number of swings in support, in 2003 every single council ward that makes up the constituency was won by the Liberal Democrats. In 2007 the Conservatives took eight of the seats to the Liberal Democrats' 16.

As with most of the country the national issues of immigration and the economy are prominent concerns for voters.

In Harrogate, there are worries that the public debt could hold up much-needed developments to the town's transport network.

Brian Dunsby, chief executive of Harrogate Chamber of Trade and Commerce, said the chamber did not have any political affiliation, but on policy issues he was concerned about the damage Tory plans not to build a third runway at Heathrow could have on tourism.

"Harrogate depends primarily on visitors," he said. "And yet our traffic and transport infrastructure is woefully inadequate.

"We do not have a direct link to Heathrow, we do not have an adequate express bus service.

"To get a direct link to Heathrow we need that third runway.

"David Cameron is speaking contrary to the needs of Harrogate – it is all well and good saying high-speed rail can replace the need for air travel, but that's not going to help us bring in visitors from America or Australia."

Mr Dunsby said the town needed an MP who would fight for the investment in local transport infrastructure, such as a bypass.

Outgoing MP Phil Willis has held the seat for the Liberal Democrat since 1997 and appears to have been well respected in the town, winning a majority of more than 10,000 in 2005 although this has since been reduced to 7,980 following boundary changes.

He was chair of the Commons Science and Technology Select Committee, which said his career highlight was forcing a policy change that later benefited stem cell research.

His former colleague Claire Kelley is now standing in his place and said the Lib Dem surge has more substance than just a knee-jerk reaction to the debate.

"The reception on the doorstep has been fantastic, really warm," she said. "And of course Cleggmania – or as one person I spoke to put it, Cleggstacy, is really helping push things along.

"But this is about more than just the TV debates. The business community here really support our proposals, they met with treasury spokesman Vince Cable and agreed with his plans for the economy.

"When they were in power here, the Liberal Democrat administration at council level worked really hard to grow small businesses and people remember that."

Mrs Kelley said the main issues are transport and affordable housing. She warned that the average house price is now 10 times the average salary.

Tory Andrew Jones is confident the majority can be overturned, and claimed he had seen no sign of the Lib Dem bounce.

He said people are concerned about the economy and affordable housing, and pointed to the Tory-led council record, currently rated as the best housing department in the country.

"Immigration is an issue that has cropped up which never cropped up before," he said. "People are asking how can our country continue to take on huge volumes of people, they can see the pressure on housing, the pressure on open spaces and the pressure on services.

"I have not noticed anyone here picking up "Cleggmania", it really isn't mentioned.

"But that's probably because the Lib Dems are not new here, they have had a Lib Dem council, they have had a Lib Dem MP, and now it is the Tories who represent change."

Harrogate & Knaresborough

n Current MP: Phil Willis, Lib Dem (Pictured, standing down)

n Notional majority*: 7,980

n Last election: Swing 1.7 per cent Con to

Lib Dem

Confirmed candidates:

n Conservative – Andrew Jones

n Labour – Kevin McNerney

n Liberal Democrat – Claire Kelley

n BNP – Steven Gill

n UKIP – John Upex

Rating: Conservative target but a lot of ground to make up

York outer

n Current MP: New seat

n Notional majority*: 203

n Last election: New seat

Confirmed candidates:

n Conservative – Julian Sturdy

n Labour – James Alexander

n Lib Dem – Madeleine Kirk

n BNP – Cathy Smurthwaite

n UKIP – Judith Morris

Rating: A tough Lib Dem– Tory battle, too close to call

Scarborough and Whitby

n Currently held by: Conservative

n Current MP: Robert Goodwill

n Notional majority*: 1,245

n Last election: Swing 5.1 per cent Lab to Cons

Confirmed candidates:

n Conservative – Robert Goodwill

n Labour – Annajoy David Da-Bora

n Liberal Democrat – Tania Exley-Moore

n Alliance for Green Socialism – Juliet Marie Boddington

n BNP – Trisha Scott

n Green – Dilys Cluer

n Independent – Peter Popple

n UKIP – Michael John James

Rating: Marginal but Conservatives expected to consolidate their position

The constituency:

n The battle for Scarborough and Whitby has proved a close fight in each of the last three elections

n When the constituency was recreated in 1997 Labour took control, but the majority of 5,124 was cut in 2001 before Robert Goodwill won the seat in 2005.

Scunthorpe

n Currently held by: Labour

n Current MP: Elliot Morley

n Notional majority*: 8,638

n Last election: Swing 1.7 per cent Lab to Cons

Confirmed candidates:

n Conservative – Caroline Johnson

n Labour – Nic Dakin

n Liberal Democrat – Neil Poole

n BNP – Douglas Ward

n Green – Natalie Hurst

n UKIP – Jane Collins

Rating: Safe Labour

The constituency:

n Outgoing MP Elliot Morley was one of highest profile cases in expenses scandal.

n Mr Morley announced he was to stand down following allegations about his mortgage claims and has since been charged with two counts of false accounting. He denies any wrongdoing.

Sheffield brightside and Hillsborough

n Current MP: David Blunkett

n Notional Majority*: 18,801

n Last election: Swing 6.4 per cent Lab to Lib Dem

Confirmed candidates:

n Conservative – John Sharp

n Labour – David Blunkett

n Liberal Democrat – Jonathan Harston

n BNP – John Sheldon

n TUSC – Maxine Bowler

n UKIP – Patricia Sullivan

Rating: Safe Labour

The constituency:

n Labour stronghold, held by the party since 1935 and political heavyweight David Blunkett commands a massive majority.