Living longer raises question of who will pay

Figures, based on predictions by the Office for National Statistics (ONS), show that today’s 20-year-olds are three times more likely to reach 100 than their grandparents, sparking a mixture of celebration and trepidation among officials.

A baby born this year is almost eight times more likely to reach 100 than one born 80 years ago, according to the Department for Work and Pensions.

A girl born this year has a one in three chance of reaching their 100th birthday, while boys have a one in four chance.

The ONS predict that in 2066 there will be at least half a million people aged over 100.

Mike Padgham of the UK Homecare Association said it was something to celebrate, but warned that an increasingly elderly population would require more tax revenue and meant “we’ve got to be willing to put our hands in our pockets”

He said: “We need to make sure older people get the quality of life they deserve, and in order to do this, it is important that the government pays due attention to the resources required. The funding that is used needs to be implemented in the right manner.”

Trade Union Congress general secretary Brendan Barber pointed out a darker side to the figures.

“The Government is right to say that increased longevity raises important policy changes,” he said. “But what is missing from today’s prediction of increased numbers living past 100 is that this could well bring greater inequalities.

“Already the gap is growing between how long the better off can expect to live compared to those on low incomes. This can only get worse without strong policies for social justice. This is as much a fairness challenge as a pension challenge.”

A third of the Yorkshire and Humber region – including Hull, Barnsley, Bradford, Wakefield and Doncaster – is marked as having some of the lowest life expectancies in the country.

In these areas, life expectancy is 11 per cent less than the national average for men, and 16 per cent less for women. A report, published by Yorkshire Futures, has warned that without spending more this gap will widen.

Age UK director Michelle Mitchell joined calls for more funding to ensure quality, as well as quantity, of life.

“We have time as a nation and individuals to adapt and make the changes that living longer entails,” she said. “So, for example, by raising income tax thresholds in line with earnings, the nation can raise more than enough between 2015 and 2030 to cover the additional costs of an aging society.”

North Yorkshire County Council said it has already been taking steps to adapt to the change, such as by using technology to give people more help to stay in their homes rather than having to be put in more costly care homes.

Council spokeswoman Elaine Williams said: “The future funding of long term care is a national issue and there is widespread recognition that the current system of funding is unsustainable in the long term. The county council will continue to meet the needs of vulnerable older people in the meantime to the best of its ability by continuing with its innovative preventative strategy.”

But Pensions Minister Steve Webb emphasised the need for people to save more: “We simply can’t look to our grandparents’ experience of retirement as a model for our own. We will live longer and we will have to save more.”

And Dr Ros Altmann, director general of over-50s organisation Saga, called for a complete rethink of retirement: “We all need to embrace the opportunity of a new phase of life – instead of traditional retirement – which could be called bonus years, where we work part-time in a fashion and at a pace that suits the individual.”