Minorities to make up a fifth of population

A Leeds University study predicts the ethnic minority share of the population will increase from eight per cent, in the last census in 2001, to around 20 per cent. The country's total population is also predicted to rise to nearly 78 million by 2051, up from 59 million in 2001.

The change in population profile will be mirrored locally in Yorkshire's two biggest cities. In Sheffield, the white population is predicted to be 79.5 per cent in 2051, down from just over 91 per cent in 2001.

Nearly 81 per cent of the population in Leeds is predicted to be white in 2051, down from nearly 92 per cent in 2001.

The study also revealed ethnic minorities are expected to shift from deprived local authorities to more affluent areas, with ethnic groups to be significantly less segregated from the rest of the population. Responding to the projections, Immigration Minister Damian Green said: "Britain has always benefited from being outward-looking and having a population with diverse backgrounds. Problems arise in periods when the population changes too fast for comfort.

"That's why the Government wants to control the level of immigration so that we can benefit from the arrival of talented people from all over the world without putting pressure on our public services."

The team found striking differences in the growth rates of the 16 ethnic groups studied. White British and Irish groups are expected to be very slow-growing, while the "Other White" group is projected to grow the fastest, driven by immigration from Europe, the United States and Australasia.

Traditional immigrant groups of south Asian origin (India, Pakistan and Bangladesh) will also grow rapidly in size.

The research team investigated ethnic population trends at a local scale in the UK and built a computer model to project trends under different scenarios.

Project leader Professor Philip Rees said: "It is impossible to predict exactly how people will move into, out of and within the country... as all of these trends are influenced by a whole range of socio-economic factors.

"However, our results suggest that overall we can look forward to being not only a more diverse nation, but one that is far more spatially integrated than at

present."