Alan McGauley: Middle-classes replace the militants as trade unions face fight to survive

The unions are now engaged in desperate, defensive actions to protect wages and conditions – not in fighting for increased pay or improved benefits. British Airways and Unite's long-standing industrial dispute has already resulted in the union and the members agreeing pay cuts. Civil servants and Post Office workers have also recently completed defensive, and largely unsuccessful, strike action.

The coalition Government has little understanding and little sympathy for organised labour. The Conservative Party has never been able to

work with the unions and the Liberal Democrats have a dislike of collective action – the reason many leftish liberals are in that party is because of the perceived dominance of Labour by the trade unions. The coalition, therefore, would want to do everything it could to weaken the power and influence of the unions.

The current position of the British trade union movement is very different from that previously encountered by the Tories. It is not the powerful beast that closed the gates at Saltley and brought down the Heath government; it is not the battling miners and steel workers of the 1980s. The current trade union movement bears as much resemblance to its predecessors as the modern police force does to Gene Hunt.

The level of union membership generally is falling, with the typical union member likely to be middle-class, middle-aged, middle-income and working in the public sector. In 2009, 15.1 per cent of private sector

employees were members. Significantly, however, 61.2 per cent of public sector employees were union members and this is where the main

conflicts with the coalition will take place.

The much feared cuts and the "age of austerity" in public spending will doubtless result in large-scale job losses. Industrial action, of some sort, will be inevitable and will be concentrated mainly in the big cities and the North.

The coalition Government could take a number of approaches. It could use the economic crisis as a battering ram to force through its wider political agenda of a smaller state, with little or no union power remaining. It could bring in new legislation aimed at curbing the unions' abilities to take industrial action, with potential massive financial claims against any union who defies the rules.

But the power relationship may not be all one-sided. The coalition Government is potentially fragile and divided and vulnerable to accusations of democratic illegitimacy. It will be forced to make tougher cuts than in the 1980s, but without anything like the levels of popular support for cuts that the Conservatives had in 1979. The combined lack of experience of being in power, could also result in practical and tactical mistakes.

The trade union movement rooted in the middle-classes may well prove to be a very different opponent to that which produced the massed ranks of flying pickets at Orgreave. While the miners where ultimately defeated, a different battle against a politically more influential foe may not have the same result.

The coalition needs to remember that the middle-classes have historically been the most difficult groups to take on and beat. The public sector unions, composed of doctors, teachers, nurses, social workers, etc may employ very different tactics, including campaigns aimed at gaining public sympathy. The coalition is more likely to waver in the face of these tactics. The pressure, particularly on the Liberals, will mean that compromise may be the order of the day.

So, what could be the outcome to the cuts in public spending and reduction in jobs? While the Government may want to take on the unions, they may not have the stomach for a bitter and protracted fight with its political consequences. There are likely to be deals done in the public sector, with guarantees of no compulsory redundancies in

exchange for pay freezes.

There could be an end to guaranteed increments and changes to pensions. Some of these changes to terms and conditions may not apply to existing staff to ease the pain.

However, they will ultimately lead to a radically restructured and

leaner public sector in the future, with fewer trade union members. This long-term change may well make any short-term deals very

attractive to the coalition.

Alan McGauley is a senior lecturer in politics at Sheffield Hallam University.