Alan McGauley: Nick Clegg could be the gravedigger of modern liberalism

Shortly after midnight yesterday, Nick Clegg announced that the Liberal Democrats had overwhelmingly accepted his recommendation that the party should now enter into a coalition government with the Conservative Party.

This was the culmination of a political journey that began for Nick Clegg when he joined the Cambridge University Conservative Association between 1986 and 1987 and took him to the European Parliament as a Liberal Democrat MEP and then MP for Sheffield Hallam since 2005.

It finally brought him to the leadership of his party 18 months ago – and, as a junior partner in a coalition with David Cameron's Conservative government, he has been appointed Deputy Prime Minister. What are the political implications of the last few days' events in the Left-leaning South Yorkshire? A coalition government with the Conservatives provides the free market element of the Liberal Democrats with a taste of power and responsibility.

However, this could be at a massive cost to the future of the Liberal Democrat party and organisation as a whole, both nationally and locally.

The local government base which the Liberals, and then the Liberal Democrats, have built up slowly and carefully over 30 years may be destroyed very quickly.

The progressive element in the party could distance itself from the economic, social and foreign policies of the Cameron Conservatives and hold its Westminster Liberal Democratic party colleagues responsible for bringing in policies with which they fundamentally disagree.

Imagine the situation in Sheffield City Council or, indeed, any other Liberal-controlled local administration. How can they protect and defend their spending decisions in the face of central government cuts voted for by the same party?

Local old-style Liberals in Sheffield have long been critical of the lack of local commitment from Nick Clegg, parachuted in via the European Parliament, and his seemingly Right-wing politics. However, they have been kept silent on the promise of greater electoral success.

The new electoral arrangements could, for them, be the straw that breaks the camel's back. They will not race into the arms of the Labour Party or even form a new grassroots, Liberal Party, as happened in the past.

In common with some on the Labour Left after the invasion of Iraq and other major policy disagreements, they will sit on their hands and not deliver leaflets, campaign or buy the raffle tickets. This would be a serious blow to the Liberal Democrat party, which has a strong history of activism. Nick Clegg's seemingly safe haven of Sheffield Hallam constituency contains tens of thousands of middle ranking and senior public sector workers in health, education and local government. They may well punish the formerly progressive Liberals for supporting a Conservative government – one that is committed to drastic reductions in public expenditure.

The situation would further be compounded by the thousands of new voters, particularly students who are important to the party in big city seats like Leeds and Sheffield. They turned out in greater numbers on the back of "Cleggmania".

What happens when the party cannot deliver its progressive policies because it has lined up with a party that – rather than ending tuition fees – actually lifts the cap to increase those fees? The resulting impact on universities and reduction in student numbers may well generate a backlash from the very young people who helped put them in their present position.

Having fought an election from a position of apparent strength and yet lost seats, Nick Clegg might now lose the support of some of his MPs, activists and voters. At the same time he will forfeit the chance to promote his party as one of opposition and change.

In polling by YouGov, 43 per cent of Lib Dem voters describe themselves as Left or Centre-Left, with 29 per cent seeing themselves as centrist and only nine per cent as Centre-Right or Right.

Disillusionment with a Tory coalition could mean a shift in votes in favour of Labour. If one in five of those voters switched to Labour, then 15 of the 57 Lib Dem seats would fall to Labour at the next election. In other constituencies, Labour could take a large number of seats from the Conservatives. Twenty-five seats would swing back from the Conservatives to Labour if just one in five Lib Dem voters defected to Labour and 55 seats would swing back if one in four Lib Dem voters switched to Labour.

The political speed dating of the last few days could change the face of politics for a generation.

The former Liberal/Conservative battlegrounds could disappear and the rapid decline of the Liberal Democrats in urban areas could leave the cities of the North as Labour fiefdoms. The Greens and other fringe parties could be the only active opposition.

Many long-term Liberal Democrat activists never really believed that they would have national political power. In a year's time they may regret wanting a hung parliament. As the saying goes "Be careful of what you wish for!"

David Blunkett may have cast Nick Clegg as a "harlot", but he could turn out to be the gravedigger of modern liberalism.

Alan McGauley is a senior lecturer in politics at Sheffield Hallam University.