Bernard Ingham: Is Salmond prepared to reap the consequences?

IMAGINE Alex Salmond looking into his shaving mirror believing he has won independence for Scotland after tomorrow’s vote on independence.

Observe the beads of sweat on his forehead, the pale complexion and the shaking hands. No, they are not evidence of a hangover; just sheer terror. He is now up the creek without a paddle.

It couldn’t happen to a nicer chap.

Hide Ad
Hide Ad

Maybe I am going soft in my old age, but I cannot believe that any political leader could be so irresponsible as to seek independence without working out convincing answers about his country’s future head of state, currency reserves and defence.

Yet that is exactly what Salmond has not done. He was completely scuppered when Westminster refused to let him have maximum devolution (“devo-max”) as an option on the ballot paper.

That, I am convinced, is his real aim – substantial home rule without the complications presented by the monarchy, dwindling oil revenues, currency, EU membership and a non-nuclear future for the Faslane military base on the Clyde.

But what does that make Salmond? Well, not exactly a man of principle. That charge is reinforced when he gaily contemplates reneging on Scotland’s debts with the question: “What are they going to do – invade?”

Hide Ad
Hide Ad

We can also add systematic lying over the fate, for example, of the NHS at the hands of English Tories when Scotland already has responsibility for it north of the border.

As for intimidation, it had never been far from the surface of the SNP. It was not long before we heard that old firebrand, Jim Sillars, threatening firms with “a day of reckoning” for having the temerity of back the Union.

Do canny Scots wish to be represented across the world by such odious individuals with a nasty streak?

I hope not.

Certainly, I have never really believed that in the end they would fall for Salmond’s cavalier “It’ll be all right on the night” response to any serious problem that separation throws up.

Hide Ad
Hide Ad

“Devo-max”, which we know he will substantially secure if the Scots vote “No”, is the ideal solution for him.

“Only one more heave”, he will say in response to his expected narrow defeat. “Meanwhile, we can forge a new Scotland and work towards eventual independence with the additional powers to be devolved on us.”

If I am wrong, then Salmond’s reputation as a mindless wrecker will be secure. Nobody knows exactly what will happen if the Scots vote to separate. But it will not be pleasant and, at worst, could seriously dent the economic recovery. Many institutions and individuals will be left counting the cost.

Medium term, I think we can be pretty certain that his militant brand of socialism with its impractical streak of greenery will wreck the economy and bring unnecessary hardship to the Scottish people.

Hide Ad
Hide Ad

If am right, then we English need to know the terms on which the Scots will be “rewarded” for narrowly rejecting separation.

Let us leave aside the Barnett formula, which gives every Scot about £1,623 (19 per cent) more than an English citizen in the distribution of government funds. Not many Englishmen think that is fair, but changing it could also adversely affect Wales and Northern Ireland, who also get a premium over the English.

Instead, let us concentrate on what really matters. And that is the level of debt for which Scotland should be responsible and its revenue and expenditure.

Broken down, the national debt of £1.4 trillion (and rising) leaves £22,853 hanging round each of our necks.

Hide Ad
Hide Ad

Scotland’s share with a population of 5.292m amounts to virtually £11lbn. It would be intolerable for a largely self-governing Scotland to continue to run debt up while the Chancellor in London is desperately trying to contain it and at least reduce the budget deficit for the UK as a whole. Last year Scotland ran an estimated deficit of £17.bn (spending £65.2bn on revenue of £47.6bn) – far higher than might be warranted by population.

We need to know where we stand, especially as Ed Miliband, driven by Gordon Brown, could well indulge the Scots, the basis of any majority he might command in Westminster.

Just how soft do our politicians intend to be with a potential wrecker of the realm? So far, being nice to Scottish Nationalists has brought only withering contempt for the “Tory Westminster elite”.

Whatever the outcome of tomorrow’s referendum, the time has come to get tough with those who would break up the nation and clearly to explain to them the severe limits to traditional English generosity, especially when the economy is in the red.