Bernard Ingham: Ukip – here to stay or a protest party past its peak?

Let us examine the facts. As a man chasing success, Nigel Farage behaved entirely rationally in not seeking personally to wrest Newark from the Tories with a 16,000 majority. No one, as he later said, was going to overturn the Conservatives there.

But with a strong candidate they did manage, on a 53 per cent turnout, to cut the Tory majority by more than half and beat Labour into third place.

After this – and establishing a promising springboard in local government – they cannot be sniffed 
at.

Moreover, the Tories are never going to manage to swamp any constituency in a general election as they blanketed Newark with MPs and activists.

On the other hand, protest parties come and go. What happened to the SDP and the Gang of Four of the 1980s? Well, their natural child, the Liberal Democrats, currently part of Britain’s governance with the Tories, came sixth in Newark and lost its deposit.

On this evidence, Ukip are the new kids on the block and the Lib Dems a rapidly fading force.

Certainly, Ukip’s Euroscepticism is in tune with the nation’s mood.

The Lib Dems’ Europhilia is bravely out of touch.

More to the point, Labour is unlikely to give the nation an in-out referendum on our European membership. Its union paymasters know that, with minimal effort, they will get far more out of Brussels than Westminster.

Overall, Europe is a continent wallowing in the squelch of social democrat wetness.

That partly explains its failing competitiveness in the world.

It is a warning to all who want a healthy economy to have nothing to do the two Eds – Miliband and Balls – or the Scot Nats or Greens who are indistinguishable from Labour apart from, respectively, wrapping themselves in the Saltire flag and the wearing of the green.

So, what does all this boil down to? Well, Ukip is not going to be the next minor party to hold the balance of power unless it can get not one but a substantial number of MPs into the Westminster Parliament.

Until then those who vote for it are not electing even the prospect of a coalition partner let alone a government. They are just indulging their discontent.

This brings us to the key to Ukip’s future: how disaffected are the people with mainstream politicians and 
what those politicians – and notably the Tories – will do about it over the next 10 months.

The public have every right to a dim view of the political class, as distinct from individual politicians, after a Parliamentary expenses scandal piled on top of the financial crash and the ensuing deep recession.

But – and this is a very big but – the coalition has not been bad, lazy or entirely incompetent. Heaven knows, I have criticised it enough.

It has cut a record Labour deficit by a third without the help of much growth and, in the face of dogma and vested interest, is tackling three major issues: the failure of the education system; the rocky foundations of the NHS and welfare dependency.

The sweep and range of its reforming zeal in an indebted country that cannot afford to throw money at anything is frankly impressive.

In addition, the Tories alone have promised an in-out referendum on Europe on which also depends effective control of immigration as well as a reduction of pettifogging regulation with its commercial cost.

They are the only major party actively seeking greater home rule

There is no good reason to turn them out – or to keep the Lib Dems on when they glory not in what they have achieved in coalition but what policies and measures they have blocked.

There is certainly no sign that Labour yet truly repents of its 1997-2010 performance.

This leaves us with the unanswered question: can the Tories this year ram home this message, demonstrate a 
new unity of purpose and convince the people that the future is safe only in their hands?

Alternatively, can Ukip, which too often has resembled a rag-bag led by an engaging bit of a lad, find a distinctive programme, demonstrate a constructive relevance to the nation’s needs and acquire some gravitas?

I strongly suspect that the bookmakers would put shorter odds on the Tories than Ukip to come up trumps. If so, that suggests Ukip is past its peak.

We shall see.