Bill Carmichael: Blair’s lesson for Miliband

POLITICIANS should be wary of asking people what they think, because the answers may be unexpected and unwelcome.

Take, for example, the Labour Party which, in the wake of last year’s election defeat, embarked on a massive policy review and listening exercise. This was a sound move because no political party can hope for success if becomes out of touch with the values the electorate holds dear.

The trouble for the new leader, Ed Miliband, was that he pre-empted the results of the consultation somewhat by taking Labour on a sharp leftward trajectory, repudiating the legacy of Tony Blair and declaring New Labour dead.

Now the results of the policy review are beginning to emerge and they must make for uncomfortable reading for the party’s leadership. Because far from demanding more red meat socialism, it turns out voters want precisely the reverse.

According to reports this week, policy co-ordinator Liam Byrne told Labour’s front bench that the results of 20,000 submissions showed that people wanted the party to cut crime and anti-social behaviour, reform welfare and reduce immigration. The public service they most valued was the police and they were also heavily sceptical of the benefits of the EU.

In other words, the opinions of ordinary people were in direct opposition to Miliband’s stance on virtually every major policy issue.

Labour has got itself into this mess because it is run from a Westminster bubble by the sort of people who believe that there is a “progressive majority” in favour of Left wing policies in the UK.

There isn’t; what Labour’s research demonstrates is that Britain is overwhelmingly conservative with a small “c”. Blair’s genius was to realise this and to shape his policies to appeal to Middle England – the famed Essex Man and Worcester Woman. David Cameron, too, has learned this lesson, hence his attempts to “detoxify” the Tories.

Both Blair and Cameron are unpopular among their party activists, but both understand that you can’t win elections without both feet planted firmly on the centre ground.

It is not the political partisans you have to convince, but the floating voters.

Miliband’s task – and it is a tough one – is to “detoxify” Labour on the economy in the same way as Cameron has detoxified the Tories on social issues.

Byrne’s jaunty note to his successor at the Treasury “there’s no money left” will hang like a millstone around Labour’s election chances for many years to come.

Miliband would be better off emulating Blair rather than repudiating him.

He has to work with the electorate he has, not the one he wishes he had.

False economy

In 1981, 364 economists wrote a letter to The Times criticising the then Conservative government’s policies, saying there was no hope of a recovery unless the administration led by Margaret Thatcher dramatically changed course.

She ignored them, and shortly afterwards the economy spectacularly took off, laying the foundations for an unprecedented period of prosperity that only came to a halt with the Gordon Brown bust of almost 30 years later. This week, 52 economists wrote a similar letter criticising the Government’s deficit reduction plan, and demanding a return to the high tax, borrowing and spending policies that almost bankrupted the country. Let’s hope they end up with egg on their faces too.

But from 364 to 52 – isn’t that a remarkable trend? If so, it would appear to be moving in the right direction, showing that even academics can learn from their mistakes.