Bill Carmichael: Germans vote on our future

Compared to the acres of newsprint devoted to the presidential elections in the United States, the German vote is largely ignored in the UK – yet the weekend’s results are sure to have as big, if not a bigger, impact in Britain than events across the Atlantic.

According to the latest opinion polls, the Christian Democratic Union, led by Chancellor Angela Merkel, holds a narrow lead and is likely to form the next government, in coalition with smaller partners.

If she manages to pull off the forecast victory, it will be a remarkable achievement for a woman who once marched in the uniform of communist East Germany and who now leads the most powerful conservative political force in Europe.

Voters normally tire of their leaders pretty quickly, but Mrs Merkel has already led Germany for eight years and her popularity shows no real sign of waning.

She is often criticised for lacking vision and being overly pragmatic, dull and obsessively cautious. But at a time of economic turmoil in the Eurozone perhaps caution and pragmatism are exactly what the electorate wants.

Certainly, the CDU thinks so. In its election literature it has made great play of depicting Mrs Merkel as a safe pair of hands in difficult times.

The party’s less than ringing slogan is “Keine Experimente!” (No Experiments!) and Mrs Merkel is often called by the affectionate nickname of “Mutti” or mummy, even though she actually has no children of her own.

Certainly she exudes the sort of no-nonsense competence mixed with a self-effacing modesty you sometimes find in successful female politicians. Think, for example, of the likes of Theresa May, Ann Cryer and Margaret Beckett.

And although she lacks the abrasiveness of Margaret Thatcher, the two leaders share the same invigorating ‘roll up your sleeves and get things done’ attitude.

So what can we expect if Mrs Merkel is returned to power? Well, sadly as far as southern Europe is concerned, more of the same. The Eurozone is bust and even a politician of the undoubted talents of Mrs Merkel isn’t going to fix it.

The best solution for Greece, Spain, Portugal and Ireland is to get the hell out of the euro, default on their debts, devalue their currency and rebuild their economies through exports. But that isn’t going to happen. Instead miserable austerity stretches on for the foreseeable future.

The only alternative is for even more German taxpayers’ money to be poured into the bottomless pit, and, as Mrs Merkel knows, her voters won’t stand for that.

But it is relations with the UK that should intrigue us in Britain. The Germans are desperate for the UK, one of the few remaining viable economies in Europe, to remain in the EU. They are terrified that we’ll walk out and leave them alone to deal with the French, who feel entitled to a nice life subsidised by endless amounts of German taxpayers’ cash.

It is also painfully apparent, even in Germany, that the EU cannot continue as it is. The dream of a United States of Europe and a single currency has turned into a never-ending nightmare for millions of people across the continent.

This gives a tremendous leverage to David Cameron in his efforts to reform a broken EU. He may find Mrs Merkel is receptive to his vision of a Europe that is more outward-looking and flexible and less costly and bureaucratic.

I still think Mr Cameron faces an uphill battle to convince the British electorate it is worth our while staying in the EU, but Mrs Merkel probably offers his best hope of doing so.