Challenger tries to beat odds and topple Minister

ON pure mathematics, Antony Calvert stands little chance of becoming MP for the new West Yorkshire seat of Morley and Outwood.

Election experts calculate that Labour has a comfortable majority of 8,669 and would have polled nearly double the number of votes as the Tories in 2005 if the constituency – which has gained Outwood and been stripped of Rothwell in a boundary shake-up – had been in existence then, putting it well beyond the Tory target list.

But this is no ordinary election battle as Mr Calvert, a former councillor who grew up in the area, throws down a considerable challenge to Schools Secretary Ed Balls, one of Gordon Brown's right-hand men.

He talks longingly of creating a "Portillo moment", a reference to the iconic television moment as Tory Cabinet Minister Michael Portillo lost his 15,000-vote majority in 1997.

It started off more in hope than expectation but by the time he created a batch of novelty "Beat Balls for a Tenner" business cards at last year's Tory conference – seeking small donations to bolster his campaign – party strategists decided that there was nothing to lose from running a strong campaign.

Billboards are a sign of central party funding, but Mr Calvert has also used his experience of witnessing the American presidential election by launching an internet "attack ad" video which has brought in 10,000.

What the Tories do not have, however, is feet on the ground. While Mr Calvert – who is campaigning on getting immigration "under control" and regenerating the town centre – has a core team of about 15 people, Mr Balls boasts 40 activists with another 50 prepared to deliver leaflets.

The difference in the campaign centres is stark. Mr Calvert's office is on the unwelcoming first floor of a Morley shop while Mr Balls' base in the town's Labour Rooms is a hive of activity with telephone canvassers and envelope stuffers.

Funding from unions – nearly 10,000 last year alone from Unite, Unison, the GMB and trade union solicitors Thompsons – has financed glossy leaflets which pledge to fight for investment and jobs and attack "reckless" Tory economic plans. Mr Balls says the hype about the seat has been generated by Right wing blogs and that he has seen "no big shift to the Tories".

"This election will be decided by the voters," he says. "Not a single person has once ever raised the issue (of a 'Portillo moment') with me in the last weeks on the doorstep or in the town."

Support appears to be holding up on the Glen estate – solid Labour territory in Morley. Two people admit they are voting for the British National Party and another will vote for the Liberal Democrats, but others promise Mr Balls their support. This is a real two-way fight.

Jean Glynn urges Mr Balls to raise the education leaving age – which he says he already has – but he soon wins her round and persuades her to give a glowing reference for Labour in a campaign video. A retired tanker driver pledges his support because "what I don't like about Cameron is he blames Brown for everything". When an elderly woman leans out of a top window and says not enough has been done for pensioners, Mr Balls admits the 75p pension rise in 2000 was a mistake and pleads "we can't get it right all the time". He believes she will vote Labour.

But in the town centre the mood is mixed. Joe Dockray runs Joey's Fresh Coffee in Queen Street but will not be voting because the country's politicians are "not doing their job right".

Cath Dockray, 62, is waiting for the final leaders' debate before making up her mind, although she doesn't seem tempted by the Tories.

"Cameron doesn't live in my world," she says. "He wouldn't know what it was to rob Peter to pay Paul and hope you've still got a job the next day."

Mr Calvert is upbeat because of Morley's independent tradition, but denies his challenge is purely to distract Labour's attention. "If we come second it will be a disappointment," he says. "We're playing this to win."

A-Z of Yorkshire constituencies

Continuing our run-through of regional constituencies:

Great Grimsby

Currently held by: Labour

MP: Austin Mitchell

Notional majority: 7,654

Last election: Swing 5.8% Lab to Con

Confirmed candidates:

Conservative – Victoria Ayling

Labour – Austin Mitchell

Liberal Democrat – Andrew De Freitas

BNP – Steve Fyfe

Independent – Ernie Brown

People's National Democrat – Adrian Howe

UKIP – Henry Hudson

Rating: Labour, but facing a Tory fight

The constituency:

Town is Labour territory and still needs double-digit swing if Tories are to take it.

HALTEMPRICE AND HOWDEN

Currently held by: Conservatives

MP: David Davis

Notional majority: 5,080

Last election: Swing 4.2% Lab to Con

Confirmed candidates:

Conservative – David Davis

Labour – Danny Marten

Liberal Democrat – Jon Neal

BNP – James Cornell

English Democrat – Joanne Robinson

Green – Shan Oakes

Rating: Comfortably Conservative

The constituency:

David Davis stormed to victory in by-election after shock decision to quit Shadow Cabinet over terror laws – but Labour and Lib Dems stood aside.

Lib Dems targeted semi-rural seat in 2005 but Mr Davis is unlikely to be troubled this time.

Hemsworth

Currently held by: Labour

MP: Jon Trickett

Notional majority: 14,026

Last election: Swing 4.2% Lab to Con

Confirmed candidates:

Conservative – Ann Myatt

Labour – Jon Trickett

Liberal Democrat – Alan Belmore

Independent – Ian Womersley

BNP – Ian Kitchen

Rating: Safe Labour

The constituency:

Home of the headquarters of budget supermarket chain Netto, the pit area was hit badly by mine closures and has suffered from deprivation.

THE FACTS

Morley and Outwood

Current MP: Colin Challen (Standing down as Labour MP for Morley and Rothwell)

Notional majority: 8,669

Last election: Swing 1.2% Lab to Con

Confirmed candidates:

Conservative – Antony Calvert

Labour – Ed Balls

Liberal Democrat – James Monaghan

BNP – Chris Beverley

UKIP – David Daniel

Rating: Tories dreaming of "Portillo moment".