Colin Mellors: Procrastinators may hold the key to tightest of races

WITH the election campaign nearing its midway point, the Conservatives and Labour remain neck and neck, suggesting there is every prospect of another hung parliament. Pollsters continue to scour in detail for subtle shifts that might offer an insight into voters’ minds. However, not only are the polls unchanged from the start of the campaign, they appear almost identical to where they were six months ago.

The only discernible trend is a softening of the Ukip vote, down by five points since last

November and effectively halved since its highpoint at last year’s European elections. As

with previous general elections, Ukip is finding it difficult to turn support on a specific range of issues into a convincing programme of broader policies.

When averaged out, the current polls put Labour and the Conservatives level on 34 per cent, a swing of over three per cent to Labour from Conservative since the last election – sufficient, depending on how badly they are damaged in Scotland, for Labour to be the largest party but still short of an overall majority.

Taking the latest findings from nine separate pollsters, the Conservatives lead in four, Labour in three, with two tied. Margins are small but, significantly, even those that put the Tories ahead do not show them advancing over Labour when compared with 2010.

The large number of undecided voters remains a key feature. In 1992, when John Major

snatched an unexpected Conservative victory, over four-fifths of electors had decided by this stage in the campaign. This time, barely over half have decided how to vote and there is an indication that many will not decide until the final few days of the campaign – too late to show up in the polls.

This might offer some small comfort to the Conservatives since there is often a shift to the party in power during the closing stages of elections.

So far, the messaging has been predictable – the Conservatives stressing their ‘credibility’ and Labour their ‘values’. Whilst reinforcing core supporters, however, this has done little to entice or convert undecided voters.

New tactics, underlined in the manifestos, have emerged over the last few days. The Conservatives have recognised the need for more upbeat and persuasive messages, even if

they echo Mrs Thatcher’s ‘right to buy’ promise from the 1980s, whilst Mr Miliband has been working hard to convince voters that the economy will be equally safe in Labour hands.

The change began in earnest last weekend, with the Conservative commitment to inject an

additional £8bn into the NHS by 2020. Labour’s more modest pledge, which they stressed was fully funded, was accompanied by the unusual spectacle of Labour challenging the Conservatives to justify their ambitious spending plans. The challenge is usually the other way around.

Whilst Mr Miliband still trails Mr Cameron on the question ‘who would make the best prime

minister?’, he has narrowed the gap with one pollster even putting him ahead in terms of

personal standing. Both, however, lag behind SNP’s Nicola Sturgeon who, despite not even

being a Westminster candidate, continues to be a prominent player in the campaign.

Indirectly, SNP also provoked one of the personal clashes in the campaign when it was

suggested by a Conservative minister that Mr Miliband might compromise defence interests

to construct a post-election deal with SNP. If intended to undermine support for the Labour leader, it backfired according to pollsters and simply appeared to buoy Mr Miliband’s resolve.

What does all of this mean for Yorkshire’s battleground seats? Currently, and assuming a uniform swing, Dewsbury, Pudsey and, probably, Keighley would be Labour gains. Labour would also pick up Bradford East (from the Liberal Democrats) and regain Bradford West which they lost to Respect in the 2012 by-election.

Twelve months ago, Ukip was the big political story with its hopes of winning a handful of

seats in the region based on local election results.

Aspirations now might be more modest with Grimsby – where they achieved an eight-point lead in last year’s local elections – their main target. Here they are assisted by a number of factors – a demography that resembles their core support, the retirement of the incumbent who has held the seat for 28 years and a candidate, then a Conservative, who came within 714 votes of winning in 2010. Even here, however, ambitions may be dashed if the polls continue to move against them.

With the two big parties so close, it is unsurprising that so much speculation is now focusing on what will happen in the event of neither securing a majority. Much has centred on the role that SNP might play, but it would be premature to write off just yet the part that the Liberal Democrats might have in such a scenario. Even with a vote share that is currently down two-thirds on 2010, they could still emerge with over two dozen seats and provide the key to who enters Downing Street.

• Colin Mellors is Emeritus Professor of Politics at the University of York