European elections kill compromise but Brexit realities remain - Andrew Vine

Only a fight to the death between the rival factions.

Maybe that’s how it was always going to end up after three years of fudge, botched negotiations and a Government policy that placed the illusion of maintaining Conservative unity on a par with the national interest.

But who the victims of that fight to the death, between advocates of crashing out of the EU without a deal in October, or those pushing for another referendum, will be is far less clear.

The danger is that those areas which backed the Brexit Party so conclusively could find that if it gets it way, the price to be paid is an economic shock that will destroy jobs and livelihoods.

The populist, simplistic message of Nigel Farage has won the day, yet it does nothing to win the argument over the potential damage that Britain could suffer as a result of a hard Brexit.

Put simply, the concerns of businesses not just in our region, but across the country, that a hard Brexit would 
do grievous harm cannot be dismissed with the glibness that is a Farage trademark.

Those concerns are nuanced and evidence-based, advanced by business leaders who know their industries and understand the complexities of trade.

They have a worth infinitely greater than easy slogans on a campaign trail.

The Brexit Party’s triumph yesterday cannot disguise the fact that it is devoid of policy ideas beyond the single headline of leaving the EU as quickly as possible.

The only mission of its MEPs is to be disruptive and hostile in the European Parliament. That is no way to represent Britain’s best interests.

And if, as Farage promises, the next electoral assault is on Parliament, we face the prospect of single-issue MPs taking seats in the Commons.

Beyond Brexit, what would they do about all the other issues facing Britain that demand such urgent attention, such as health and social care, a creaking transport system, education or local authorities slowly sinking into penury?

The depth of the split amongst Britain’s people over Brexit was graphically illustrated with each result that came in on Sunday night and the early hours of yesterday morning.

The rout of the Tories was humiliating, if unsurprising given the party’s agonies over the past months and its failure to mount any sort of campaign for the elections.

But if Labour thought it was going to profit from the Government’s discomfiture, it has little to crow about.

Jeremy Corbyn’s fence-sitting over Brexit in the hope that something – anything – would turn up that set him on course for Government in the event of a general election stands exposed as a deeply flawed policy.

Yet beyond the two big parties and the upstart disrupter, the split within Britain was even more apparent in the surge of support for the Liberal Democrats, the Greens, and in Scotland, the SNP.

This contingent advocating another referendum with the intention of dumping Brexit and staying within the EU has substantial support.

And each of these parties has a coherent domestic policy agenda.

The most pressing issue for the Government, and for the candidates battling it out to succeed Theresa May, is how it responds to the polarisation of the electorate.

There will inevitably be a temptation for some to try to match Farage’s anti-EU rhetoric to win back natural Tory voters who defected to the Brexit Party, but that risks driving the Government into a dead-end of advocating a no-deal departure which is unlikely to get past the Commons or command a majority at a general election.

The current front-runners, Boris Johnson and Dominic Raab, may be temperamentally inclined to lean towards no-deal, but both are savvy enough to realise that it will lose so many voters that they could end up either leading an administration even weaker than Theresa May’s or being dumped out of office.

The questions facing Labour are hardly less pressing.

Its ambiguity over Brexit so far has got it nowhere, and while there might once have been an advantage in sitting back and letting the Government tear itself apart, that will no longer do.

Labour calls for the party to back a second referendum are only going to grow more insistent, not least because when a general election comes, such a position would make forming a Government with the support of Lib Dems, Greens and the SNP a possibility.

Yet those cheering either the advocates of a hard Brexit or a second referendum should have pause today after this extraordinary set of election results.