Exams: Buck stops with Boris Johnson if he’s to avoid John Major’s fate – Bill Carmichael

The policy to downgrade almost 40 per cent of A-level results, and then quickly perform a hand-brake turn to reverse that decision, has left teenagers in tears, universities in chaos and Government ministers jabbering meaningless soundbites on television like rabbits caught in the headlights.

No doubt some of the finest minds of politics, the Civil Service and the exam quango were engaged in developing the “robust” algorithm that “standardised” the teacher assessments that took the place of actual exams once the Covid-19 pandemic hit.

But didn’t any of them pause to think: “Hold on – we’ve devised a system that punishes the brightest pupils from the most disadvantaged schools. Is that fair?”

Apparently not. Much of the blame for this fiasco is directed at the hapless Education Secretary, Scarborough-born Gavin Williamson, and rightly so. He is the boss so he should carry the can.

And it is not as if there were not warnings aplenty. For example the Commons Education Select Committee, chaired by Conservative MP Robert Halfon, was ringing loud alarm bells as early as July 11, arguing that the standardisation of exam results could badly impact on the most disadvantaged students.

Williamson ploughed on regardless. Even after rising fury had forced the Scottish Government to abandon a similar downgrade system, Williamson was insisting that the standardisation was “fair and robust” and there would be “no U-turn, no change”.

All that changed on Monday of this week when the whole thing was thrown into reverse and Williamson was forced into a tour of the TV studios for a series of embarrassing interviews where he tried, and failed, to defend the indefensible.

There is no surprise that many are asking why he is still in a Government job. There has been a deafening chorus of, “what do you need to do to get sacked in politics these days?”

But there are a number of reasons why Williamson is likely to stay in post – at least for now. One is that he is performing the job of a human lightning rod for Boris Johnson and the rest of the Cabinet. While the mob are calling for the Education Secretary’s head, it largely allows the Prime Minister to dodge the blame.

I think that’s why Sir Keir Starmer has refrained from calling for Williamson’s resignation. He wants the whole Government to share responsibility for the mess, rather than just concentrate fire on one man. Clever politics from the Labour leader.

Another reason is that although Williamson is the main culprit, he is not solely to blame. For example it was the exams watchdog Ofqual which devised the algorithm. Not for the first time during this pandemic, the technocrats have proved themselves as useless as the politicians.

Williamson is a former Chief Whip and a notable political fixer and no doubt he will be working hard to deflect at least some of the blame on to Ofqual bosses.

Another reason is that the SNP-controlled government in Scotland, Labour in Wales and the DUP-Sinn Fein administration in Northern Ireland all experienced a similar disaster and performed the same U-turns over exam standardisation.

Admittedly it is a weak defence to point to the similar mess other politicians have made, but it blunts Labour’s attack and undermines their claim they could do better when they were responsible for exactly the same chaos in Wales.

So where does all this leave us? Williamson is badly damaged and now has the unenviable task of clearing up the shambles he created. Perhaps he will be quietly shifted aside in an autumn reshuffle?

The Government as a whole has also taken a battering. We are in all likelihood a long way off a general election, and I don’t believe this year’s exam results will be a top priority for voters in 2024, but the general air of chaos and incompetence could be hard to shift.

Think of the dying days of John
 Major’s premiership when his administration became firmly associated in the minds of the public with disunity, ineptitude and sleaze, leading to Tony Blair’s landslide election victory with New Labour in 1997.

If Johnson wants to avoid the same fate he needs to get a grip and fast.

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