Jack Blanchard: Student vote may hold sway in a classic dogfight

Having been held by each of the major parties at various times over the past 15 years, the constituency now represents Yorkshire's only genuine three-way marginal, with just a few thousand votes separating the Liberal Democrat, Labour and Conservative candidates.

The current MP is Lib Dem Greg Mulholland – also now the party's shadow health spokesman. He won the seat in 2005 with a majority of less than 1,900 over his Labour opponent. But with the third-placed Tories only 5,000 votes behind him, Leeds North West remains one of just 12 constituencies in the country where any of the three major party candidates could realistically be returned to Westminster.

How times have changed. From its creation as a new constituency back in 1950 – Sir Donald Kaberry was the seat's first MP – right up to Labour's surge into power in May 1997, Leeds North West was dyed-in-the-wool Conservative, the leafy suburbs stretching out towards Otley returning a Tory MP at every election for almost half a century.

Labour's surprise victory here in 1997, courtesy of left-winger Harold Best, was put down in part to the nationwide Tory collapse, and in part to the burgeoning left-wing student vote in Headingley. When Mr Mulholland then took the seat for the Lib Dems in 2005, the students were again credited with the change, many having switched away from Labour following the Iraq war.

And in a constituency which contains one of the largest student populations in the country – making up more than a quarter of all voters – the undergraduate vote is bound to prove crucial once again this year.

"If you look at the small majority the Lib Dems have here, frankly it will be students who win or lose this seat again next month," said Lewis Coakley, a Leeds North West resident and the 23-year-old president of Leeds Met Student Union.

"The issue we hear more than any other is students worrying about the cost of higher education – whether fees will go up. They're really worried about how much degrees are going to cost in the future.

"The other thing, of course, is jobs – what jobs are there going to be for people to go into when they've graduated? Students are generally in favour of more people going to university, but the worry is are there going to be the jobs for them afterwards?

"In the past, you might have said students could be quite apathetic, but over the past year I'd say we've seen a real politicisation of students because of the changing circumstances – they are looking at the economy and seeing how it will affect them."

The important of the student vote should not be overplayed, however. There is, as well, a range of both wealthy and modest residences within its borders.

Furthermore, minor boundary changes since the last election are

expected to work broadly in the Conservatives' favour – though analysts believe the Lib Dems would still claim a narrow majority if voting patterns remained the same as in 2005.

All three main candidates look strong on paper.

Tory Julia Mulligan is a former North Yorkshire district councillor who knows Leeds well, running a marketing agency in the centre of the city. And Labour's candidate Judith Blake is already a well-known local politician, having been deputy leader of the city council's opposition Labour group for several years and finishing a close second to Mr Mulholland in the 2005 General Election.

As such, the outcome is likely to provide a clear indicator as to which of the main parties has performed best of all on polling day.